Moderna dives as 2021 vaccine forecast cut, revenue misses

Moderna shares slid 14% as of 8:41 a.m. in premarket trading after it said vaccine sales would be between $15 billion and $18 billion in 2021. Previously, the company had said it had signed agreements for $20 billion in anticipated 2021 vaccine sales.

It also lowered its vaccine production forecast for this year to between 700 million and 800 million doses, at the full 100 microgram dose used for the initial two shots.

Moderna has struggled to shift from its mostly domestic vaccine business in the first half of the year, when U.S. goverment purchases gobbled up most of its initial vaccine supply, to delivering vaccines to far-flung international locales. Third-quarter vaccine barely rose to 208 million doses, as the bulk of deliveries went abroad, compared to 199 million doses in the second quarter, when almost two-thirds of the doses went to the U.S.

In a statement, Moderna said longer lead times for international orders may shift some deliveries into 2022. The company cited a "temporary impact" as it attempts to expand its capacity to fill and finish vaccine vials.

The subpar performance comes as Moderna is vying with Covid-19 vaccine rivals Pfizer and BioNTech in a race to lock in orders for booster shots for next year. Earlier this week, Pfizer raised its full-year 2021 forecast for Covid vaccine sales to $36 billion and said it expected to sell $29 billion worth of the partners' vaccine in 2022.

Moderna also said its board of directors had authorized a share buyback program of up to $1 billion over a two-year period.

For the third quarter Moderna reported revenue of $5 billion and diluted earnings per share of $7.70, well below analyst expectations. Not all the news was bad. Moderna said it now has $17 billion of signed vaccine orders for 2022, and expects sales in the range of $17 billion to $22 billion.

While well below Pfizer's Covid sales forecast, that would still make Moderna's vaccine one of the best selling drug products in the world next year. The company also reported that a trial showed its vaccine for children 6 to 11 years old was 100% effective two weeks after the first 50 milligram dose was administered.

However, earlier this week, Moderna faced a setback in getting its vaccine for 12- to 17-year-olds to the U.S. market. Regulators said they needed more time to examine the risk of myocarditis, a rare form of heart inflammation linked to the vaccine, before deciding on clearing it for that age group. On a conference call, Moderna said its own safety database of 1.5 million individuals under 18 showed no increased heart inflammation risk.