Changing times mark sunset for some careers and sunrise for others: survey
Twelve careers and businesses are at high risk of disruption and layoffs while 10 others have a promising future, according to a recent survey by the Economic and Business Research Centre for Reform at Rangsit University.
The centre’s director, Anusorn Tamajai, said 12 careers faced high risk of layoffs and stagnant income. The first group comprises businesses or professionals related to providing services for newborns to 15-year-olds. The risk stems from the fact that the numbers in this group have been decreasing. Their numbers are estimated to be 12.7 million to 12.8 million next year given that the Thai population growth rate this year is only 0.18 per cent, the slowest in Asean. The total Thai population now is 69.3 million, or 0.9 per cent of global population. Thailand’s population will peak at 70 million (69.7 million) in 2025 before dropping to 65.4 million in 2050.
The population of the young age group will decrease to 10.4 million in 2027. However, a large proportion of children are in the deep South provinces of Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat and Satun, or about 23-24 per cent of total population in each province. But the first three provinces are facing economic hardship due to the unrest.
Anusorn said that he expected more childcare centres and kindergarten and primary schools to be shut down. This will adversely affect employment of teachers and other educators.
Those who are employed in counter services also will be hit hard as consumers will do more transactions online. Brokers and direct sales forces also would be adversely affected by online business. Those who are in print media, advertising, cable TV and satellite TV face a grim future. Employees or businesses in dirty manufacturing which cause climate change and pollution will be adversely affected. Taxi drivers have already been impacted by the emerging ride-hailing services such as GrabTaxi and GrabCar. Property leasing will not escape either. Traditional banks and financial institutions would be disrupted. Manufacturing of auto parts and obsolete IT manufacturing will be hit hard. People in high-end and low-end property development will face a hard time due to lack of demand in the high-end property and lack of purchasing power at the lower end.
Those who work in back office would be replaced by robots and AI, he predicted.
However, there are 10 careers that are expected to fare well. These include care of the elderly and rehabilitation business. Those who work for electronic platforms will have bright prospects. With growing e-commerce, those in the transportation and logistics businesses will benefit. Tourism and related services are expected to continue to grow. Medical services, healthcare and health foods will see expansion. Construction, rail system and communication systems will expand. Those who have knowledge to develop applications will be boosted by the IT revolution. Advance data analysts, insurance economists, actuaries and investment advisers are also expected to be thrive. New careers such as user-experience manager, content and social media manager and virtual reality consultant will have a bright future. Online educators and related services will find a promising future, he said.
He forecast that next year, more people will be laid off hence the Social Security Office has to make sure that the labourers are well protected. The rising ageing population will put high pressure on the social security fund, which needs to be reformed due to increasing compensation for laid-off workers and pension payment for retirees, he added.
