Thailand’s ‘dual prime minister’ model is a delicate tight-rope walk

The era of dual prime ministers is becoming increasingly evident in Thailand – Thaksin Shinawatra and his daughter, the official PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

This is a political dream for Thaksin. Looking back, Thaksin had previously learned his lessons after giving the reins to a “prime minister outside the Shinawatra family”, particularly the case of Samak Sundaravej, who became prime minister after the People Power Party won the 2007 general election.

Thaksin was unable to control the 25th prime minister as he had hoped, leading to the rise of the "Gang of Four" to negotiate power. Eventually, Samak was replaced by Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin's brother-in-law, who became the 26th prime minister.

Similarly, in the era of Srettha Thavisin, while public appearances suggest a harmonious political alignment between Srettha and Thaksin, insiders are aware of several disagreements between the two. This required Yingluck Shinawatra, the exiled former female prime minister, to step in and mediate.

The Srettha government was in power at a pivotal moment when Thaksin had been granted parole, allowing him to make multiple public appearances and provide interviews on the political direction. This sparked criticism, with some perceiving a rivalry for the political spotlight.

In Paetongtarn’s era, however, Thaksin’s appearances and interviews are seen as part of a parallel political strategy — "Thaksin plans, Paetongtarn executes". This approach has been adopted as a model for driving the country forward, free of conflict or division.

As Thaksin is the father of the PM, and Paetongtarn is the daughter of a former PM, competition between them does not arise. Instead, their "dual prime ministerial system" complements their strengths, with roles clearly divided—one passes, the other scores.

In mid-December, Thaksin openly criticised coalition parties for skipping Cabinet meetings, threatening to remove them from the coalition if they failed to collaborate. This fuelled speculation that Thaksin intended to oust Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, leader of the United Thai Nation Party, from the coalition.

However, a few days later, Paetongtarn stepped in to defuse tensions, assuring the public that the coalition was working well together, with no party acting defiantly. She emphasised that cooperation within the coalition remained strong.

Those aware of behind the scenes moves say that the prime minister herself informed Thaksin about the absenteeism, triggering Thaksin's fiery remarks, which sent shockwaves through the political landscape.

Recently, questions have emerged regarding the "real prime minister", but Thaksin and Paetongtarn have been working in harmony. Paetongtarn said about her father: "I am his daughter, not his competitor. I grew up in a house where he was the head of the family. If we can adapt his words, they are always valuable."

Every word and statement from Paetongtarn underscores her unwavering support for Thaksin's political direction. Whether as prime minister or leader of the Pheu Thai Party, she has no objections to any of her father’s actions.

Thaksin, for his part, has consistently praised his daughter during speeches, emphasising her work ethic and extensive preparations across various sectors. He expressed confidence that Paetongtarn's government could revive the economy, predicting improvements by late 2025.

The "dual prime minister" dynamic is a strength, enabling them to divide roles in tackling political adversaries, particularly protest groups and critics. Thaksin often takes on the more aggressive role, stepping forward to directly confront opponents himself.

Every statement from Thaksin targeting rivals is forceful, aiming to deliver a direct blow to opponents. His strategy is designed to halt attacks against his daughter and, if necessary, he is ready to confront them head-on.

Thaksin's actions act as a shield for Paetongtarn, openly protecting her. If the prime minister were to engage in direct confrontations herself, it could harm her image and risk losing political points.

Thus, the "dual prime minister" strategy positions Thaksin as the behind-the-scenes political driver, handling critical deals across all dimensions, while Paetongtarn takes the spotlight, navigating power within legal frameworks. Once key behind-the-scenes deals are finalised, the political strategy advances accordingly.

This approach is both a strength and a weakness. The father-daughter duo must carefully balance their roles to ensure success without creating vulnerabilities.