Impending Cabinet reshuffle turns focus towards Thaksin’s influence

Even though Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra asserts that she has her own leadership style, distinct from her father Thaksin Shinawatra, comparisons continue to underscore the considerable gap in political influence between the two. 

When key political figures seek to negotiate or change political direction, they often head to Thaksin’s Ban Chan Song La House rather than Government House, as decisions tend to originate from his strategic thinking more than from the prime minister herself.

As Paetongtarn’s administration nears its fifth month in office, assessments of its performance become inevitable, particularly with the prospect of a Cabinet reshuffle. Under Thaksin’s leadership, a Cabinet reshuffle every six months was routine, driven by the need for political reciprocity or the removal of underperforming ministers. The latter was crucial for motivating ministers to deliver tangible results for the government, with those failing to meet expectations or KPIs being at risk of losing their positions.

In contrast, Paetongtarn’s era sees a changed political landscape. The Pheu Thai Party is no longer as dominant as its predecessor, the Thai Rak Thai Party, once was, with fewer MPs and a greater reliance on coalition partners. Therefore, Cabinet reshuffles now require broader political considerations, often responding to emerging political needs.

An upcoming challenge looms with the opposition bloc, led by the People’s Party, preparing a no-confidence motion against several ministers. This debate is expected between late February and early March. If this motion goes forward, it could provide the prime minister with an opportunity to reshuffle the Cabinet, especially given that several ministers have failed to achieve notable results.

Within Pheu Thai’s ranks, some ministers face scrutiny. Although there is caution in pressuring for Cabinet changes—due to fears of displeasing Thaksin—many are quietly awaiting a potential reshuffle. Among them is Jiraporn Sindhuprai, minister attached to the Prime Minister’s Office, whose performance is viewed as lacklustre.

Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa was nearly excluded from Paetongtarn’s Cabinet, but Thaksin’s inability to find a suitable replacement for Panpree Bahiddha-Nukara led him to retain Maris. His performance in foreign affairs has been heavily criticised, particularly regarding disputes with neighbouring Myanmar. A notable issue was the clash between Thai fishing boats and Myanmar, resulting in shootings and arrests, and the failure to secure the release of detained Thai crew members.

Several other ministers are also under close evaluation, including Chusak Sirinin, minister attached to the Prime Minister’s Office, Minister of Public Health Somsak Thepsuthin, Minister of Culture Sudawan Wangsupakitkosol, Deputy Minister of Transport Surapong Piyachote.

As the reshuffle discussion grows, attention is also turning to coalition partners. Ministers from these parties, including Permpoon Chidchob (Education), Napintorn Srisunpang (Deputy Minister of Commerce), and Suchart Chomklin (Deputy Minister of Commerce), may face replacement due to underperformance.

Another possibility involves Thaksin requesting a ministry swap with coalition partners to accelerate policies promised during the 2023 election campaign. The Ministry of Labour, which oversees the 600-baht daily wage policy, is a focal point. Under Phipat Ratchakitprakarn from the Bhumjaithai Party, progress on wage increase has been slow, and the nationwide wage remains under 400 baht per day, making it unlikely Pheu Thai can fulfil its promise of  600 baht by 2030.

After the no-confidence debate, all eyes will be on how Thaksin moves politically. A Cabinet reshuffle is seen as a critical step to solidify Paetongtarn’s position and revitalie Pheu Thai ahead of the 2030 elections.