What’s the legal path for exiled ex-PM Yingluck to return home?

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has said that efforts are being made to facilitate the return to Thailand of his self-exiled sister, former PM Yingluck Shinawatra.

In an interview with Nikkei Asia on Monday (November 18), Thaksin said he sees no obstacles in Yingluck returning home before next year’s Songkran festival.

"I think she might be able to return home slightly earlier than that [Songkran], depending on timing and opportunity," he added.

There has been speculation since early this year about Yingluck’s return to Thailand. This was fuelled by comments from her brother, Thaksin, who assured that the former PM would return to celebrate Songkran in Thailand next year.

Rumours of Yingluck’s return started doing the rounds after the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions on March 4 acquitted Yingluck and others of allegations of misconduct and abuse of power in the 240-billion-baht “Thailand 2022 Roadshow Project” and issued an order to revoke the arrest warrant against Yingluck.

Before that, on December 26, 2023, the same court had also dismissed another case against Yingluck over the alleged improper transfer of Thawil Pliensri from his position as secretary-general of the National Security Council. 

Thailand’s first female PM, however, has been convicted in one case. The Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions sentenced her to five years in prison on September 27, 2017 for her failure to prevent losses in the rice-pledging scheme.

Under the Organic Act on Criminal Procedures for Political Office Holders, the statute of limitations does not apply if the defendant flees after the final sentencing. This means the legal process will resume once she returns to face justice.

The signals on the possible return of Yingluck have sparked comparisons with Thaksin’s own return from exile. Thaksin had been convicted in three cases, for a total of eight years in prison. He was granted a royal pardon on September 1, 2023, reducing his eight-year sentence to just over a year. He was subsequently proposed for parole by the Department of Corrections and regained his freedom on February 18, 2024. Since then, he has appeared in both public and behind-the-scenes political roles.

Yingluck's case is seen as potentially following a similar path, with speculation that she might seek a royal pardon by arguing that her conviction was for "neglect of duty" rather than corruption.

However, her situation differs from Thaksin’s in key aspects. Yingluck still faces an active case upon her return to Thailand. This means she would not qualify for parole, unlike her brother, who met the conditions of being over 70 years old and experiencing age-related health issues.

This has led to the next potential steps. One option is leveraging provisions under the Corrections Act of 2017. These guidelines are known as the "law for detention outside prison”.

However, this route carries risks tied to the "Shinawatra brand”, which could trigger a ripple effect, bringing the Pheu Thai Party and the government under scrutiny. Such a move might reignite public criticism over perceived "privileged treatment".

As such, Thaksin and his allies may need to weigh the potential benefits against the risks and consequences of pursuing this course of action.

Another pathway being considered is reopening the rice-pledging case based on the argument that Yingluck had taken measures to address potential damage. Specifically, she had appointed Boonsong Teriyapirom, then minister of Commerce, to investigate the matter.

The crux of Yingluck's defence lies in asserting that, as the chief executive, she did not "neglect her duties" as accused. 

This issue gained renewed attention during the administration of former PM Srettha Thavisin. The deputy PM and commerce minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, actively endorsed the rice-pledging programme by publicly eating 10-year-old rice to prove there was no deterioration in quality. Notably, he made public appearances endorsing the stock management of rice from the scheme, emphasising its long-term value.

Phumtham's actions were seen as an effort to assert that the damage associated with the rice-pledging programme did not stem from the scheme itself but rather from the subsequent sale of rice under the government led by General Prayut Chan-o-cha, which established a committee to dictate rice prices.

Nevertheless, the viability of this approach hinges on multiple factors, particularly the role of Boonsong, who is reportedly unwilling to take sole responsibility. It is said that Boonsong had previously hinted at possessing crucial evidence implicating other key figures involved in the rice-pledging saga. Such revelations may be contingent upon satisfactory resolutions or negotiations.

In 2017, the Supreme Court gave Boonsong a prison sentence in the government-to-government rice sales case. His sentence ends on April 21, 2028.

At this juncture, while the government side, especially Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, has denied any formal coordination regarding Yingluck's return, her father’s remarks on the matter point to behind-the-scenes machinations.