Three tough challenges the ruling Pheu Thai Party faces

The "Three Kingdoms" era in Thai politics comprises three main factions: the Pheu Thai Party, which heads the current government; the "old power bloc" – largely made up of parties who are now a part of the ruling coalition; and the People's Party and the "Orange" allies, currently in opposition to the government and leading rivals in the next election.

Various hot-button issues will pose tough challenges for the government.

The first challenge is addressing sensitive government issues, such as MOU44 – the memorandum of association signed with Cambodia in 2001 – which has stirred nationalist sentiments, particularly from the conservative "Palang Pracharath Party". They aim to rally conservative support on the issue.

In a show of unity, the "government coalition leaders" held talks before Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra led a team of coalition leaders to reaffirm that Ko Kut belongs to Thailand and that MOU44 is irrelevant, ruling out any chance of losing Thai territory.

However, in the background, close attention is on the upcoming formation of a joint technical committee, expected in about two weeks, as both countries signal their readiness for renewed negotiations. 

While the government aims to project unity, some coalition parties reportedly still have reservations on the issue, as do anti-MoU groups, who continue to defend their stance and seek opportunities to challenge the government.

Another hot issue to watch closely is the selection of the chairperson and expert members to the board of the Bank of Thailand, which has now been entangled in political dynamics when the government try to place their own people in positions.

Given this scenario, attention is on whether there will actually be a change in candidates, with the outcome expected at the upcoming meeting on November 11.

The second challenge is a political test. The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) has requested the medical records of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who underwent treatment at the Police General Hospital. The NACC is preparing to summon relevant agencies and individuals for information.

This has naturally turned into a political game, playing into the hands of the opposition, particularly the People's Party. 

Earlier there were questions about the opposition’s role in scrutinising this issue, as they largely avoided addressing the police hospital’s 14th floor, sparking suspicions of mutual benefits, especially around the push for amnesty laws related to Article 112 (lese majeste law).

Recently, however, the Pheu Thai Party has struck a more conciliatory tone with coalition partners by proposing an amnesty law that excludes Article 112.

This shift may spark retaliation from the "Orange Party" and other activist groups, who could reignite issues around “elite privilege”.

This is evident in the latest move by the House Committee on National Security, chaired by Rangsiman Rome of the People’s Party, which has begun reviewing justice reform issues concerning Thaksin’s treatment at the Police General Hospital, fuelling criticisms of delayed action.

Adding to this are the numerous “legal battles,” including petitions for the dissolution of Pheu Thai and coalition parties, with several pending cases still awaiting review. All of these will pose tough challenges for Pheu Thai and its coalition allies.

The third challenge is the government’s stability, which currently rests on a seemingly conciliatory balance of power, partly because political parties are still not preparing for the possibility of new elections, so no immediate signs of breaking points have emerged.

However, this balance hides a game of bargaining, especially as Pheu Thai no longer holds absolute power as before. It’s unsurprising, then, to see coalition parties hinting at negotiations, as seen in parliamentary battles like the amnesty law proposal, where coalition allies have signalled opposition to any sweeping inclusion of Article 112. There are also debates on constitutional amendments and referendums, which serve as ongoing tests of strength that may become clearer after Parliament reconvenes on December 12.

These challenges are mirrored in various policy stances and government agendas, where different parties continuously negotiate terms, reflecting the fragmented unity within the coalition.

All of these factors make for “tough tests and hard challenges” that the government, particularly Pheu Thai as the leading party, must now navigate.