Three factors driving political uncertainty

Amidst the current political uncertainty, some individuals or groups may be starting to see more opportunities to push for game-changing moves rather than continuing to play defensively.

Political uncertainty tied to at least three cases is not to be underestimated, as it could lead to a shift in the balance of power.

The first case involves senators filing a petition against Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who appointed Pichit Chuenban as the minister of the Prime Minister's Office despite the fact that he knew or should have known that Pichit lacked qualifications or had disqualifying characteristics under the Constitution.

The second case involves former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra facing charges under Section 112 of the Criminal Code (lese-majeste law).

The third case, disbanding the Future Forward Party, arose from proposals to amend or repeal Section 112.

All these cases affect the political landscape and could lead to significant changes. 

If Srettha is dismissed from his position by the Constitutional Court, a new prime minister would need to be selected in the vote by the House of Representatives. 

According to the Constitution, only the House of Representatives can select the prime minister from a list submitted by each party before the election.

The names must come from political parties with no less than 5% of the seats (25 seats) and supported by at least one-tenth of the members (50 votes).

This means that there are six parties with the right to nominate a prime minister, totalling seven candidates.

The opportunity for a new prime minister to succeed Srettha is limited. Only Paethongtarn Shinawatra and Chaikasem Nitisiri of the Pheu Thai Party, Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai Party, General Prawit Wongsuwan of the Palang Pracharath Party, and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga of the United Thai Nation Party are viable.

As for Pita Limjaroenrat, chairman of the Move Forward Party’s advisory committee and its prime-ministerial candidate, he can only become prime minister if there is a shift in the formation of the government. Therefore, it is unlikely he will get enough support. 

Moreover, if the Move Forward Party is dissolved by the Constitutional Court, Pita’s chances would disappear completely, as he would be disqualified from politics for 10 years.

Regarding General Prayut Chan-o-cha of the United Thai Nation Party, he has now been appointed as a privy councillor and is unlikely to be a candidate again.

As for the Section 112 case involving Thaksin, even though the case may involve up to three courts, which would likely take more than three years to deliberate, it must not be forgotten that Thaksin no longer has the same freedom as before, as he is under bail conditions. Therefore, his ability to fully support the Pheu Thai Party and Paetongtarn to regain momentum and compete with the Move Forward Party is much more challenging. 

Moreover, given that the competitor’s momentum is already high, the chances of turning the situation around are slim.

Furthermore, Thaksin's return to Thailand has not only failed to boost the Pheu Thai Party's popularity but has exacerbated its problems. Thaksin has shown no remorse for his past wrongdoings, continues to challenge the law, and acts as if he is above others, especially as a “prisoner”. These actions will raise concerns over time, as to whether Thaksin will cause further damage to the Pheu Thai Party and the government.

Regarding the Move Forward dissolution case, it is anticipated that this could lead to a surge in sympathy and support, which is already high, potentially making the party a lasting force. 

However, it must be noted that if the case were successful, the party’s executive committee would face a 10-year political disqualification, and several MPs who are being prosecuted by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) for signing an amendment to Criminal Code Section 112 could be charged with severe ethical violations, possibly leading to a lifetime political ban. 

While it is true that new leaders and ideals could emerge, the magnetic appeal that Pita currently holds is not easy to replicate.

Thus it is hard to envisage what will happen if figures like Pita and other influential members of the Move Forward Party are no longer present. How many new members will remain committed to the party's progressive ideals? 

Furthermore, there are reports that some MPs from the party are already in contact with new parties in power, preparing to join them if Move Forward is dissolved. This is another aspect worth watching.

Amid such political uncertainty, there are also the unexpected results of the election of the new Senate members.

Notably, about 130 new senators are closely associated with the Bhumjaithai Party or powerful families close to that party, indicating that this group will have significant influence over constitutional amendments, which require one-third of the Senate votes, as well as in appointing members of independent organisations. This is significant, even though the new Senate no longer has the power to vote for the prime minister.

This demonstrates the capability of the "Blue Faction" to dominate the Senate, while the "Red Faction", close to the Pheu Thai Party and Thaksin, failed, including even Somchai Wongsawat, a former prime minister and Thaksin’s brother-in-law. 

Moreover, rising stars, led by Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, chairman of the Progressive Movement, such as the Orange Faction, were completely subdued.

This phenomenon raises questions about the influence of the powers that be, particularly the conservative faction, which is beginning to see Thaksin's weaknesses and increasing attacks on both Thaksin and the Pheu Thai Party.