Cambodia’s 10-point strategy raises tensions in Thai border dispute

Prof emer Surachart Bamrungsuk, a political science lecturer at Chulalongkorn University, has compiled a list of ten key actions by Cambodia amid the escalating Thai–Cambodian border dispute. The issue has grown into what he terms a “border crisis,” raising regional and international concern over the potential for armed conflict reminiscent of clashes in 2011.

Despite tensions running high, there remains cautious hope that the crisis can be de-escalated without resorting to military force. However, Surachart warns that Cambodia’s current posture suggests an increasingly rigid and confrontational stance, summarised by what he calls the "7 No’s and 3 Appeal Actions"—a set of policies and actions reflecting the Cambodian government’s strategic direction. 

1. No Negotiation

Cambodia has adopted a firm refusal to engage in talks, particularly evident in the recent dispute in the Chong Bok area of Ubon Ratchathani Province. This refusal to negotiate not only escalates tensions but also leaves little room for peaceful conflict resolution.

2. No Withdrawal

Following the deployment of Cambodian troops into what Thailand considers its sovereign territory near Chong Bok, Cambodian forces have constructed defensive structures such as trench systems. Despite calls for withdrawal, Cambodia has refused to pull back, effectively seeking a political advantage through maintaining its presence.

3. No De-escalation

In conflict resolution theory, reducing troop levels is often seen as a goodwill gesture to lower tensions. However, Cambodia has signalled no intention to reduce military strength in the area, reinforcing its tactical advantage and further entrenching the stalemate.

4. No Border Closures

Despite rising tensions, Cambodia appears unwilling to shut down cross-border trade. This reluctance is likely due to economic dependence on Thai goods, fuel, and internet connectivity. Cambodian leaders fear that border closures would spark domestic backlash. Nevertheless, Thailand has already begun to control certain checkpoints in response to the situation.

5. No Acceptance of Thai Maps

A longstanding obstacle in the border dispute is the use of different map scales: Cambodia insists on using 1:200,000-scale maps, while Thailand uses 1:50,000. Cambodia's refusal to recognise Thai maps reflects its strategic interest in maintaining a legal upper hand, thereby impeding progress toward a settlement.

6. No to the MOU

The foundational framework for resolving the border dispute has been the 2000 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Thailand and Cambodia on land boundary demarcation. This MOU explicitly prohibits both parties from taking any actions that may alter the status quo or physical environment along the border. Despite this, Cambodia has reportedly engaged in several activities that have changed conditions on the ground. Its current stance appears to reject adherence to this key agreement.

7. No Single-Issue Resolution

Although the present tension is concentrated in the Chong Bok area of Ubon Ratchathani, Cambodian leadership appears intent on broadening the dispute. This includes raising issues related to the Ta Muen Thom temple complex in Surin Province and potentially extending claims into maritime boundaries. This approach—refusing to resolve one issue in isolation—inevitably adds complexity and delays to any peaceful resolution.

8. Appeal to International Court

Cambodia has made clear its intention to elevate the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague. Drawing from its experience and perceived advantage in the Preah Vihear case, Cambodia sees legal arbitration as a favourable path, believing its historical evidence and documentation give it the upper hand.

9. Appeal to Public Opinion

A key strategy in Cambodia’s diplomatic approach has been the use of public diplomacy. This involves mobilising narratives through international media, online platforms, and public forums to shape global perception. Cambodia has been particularly active on social media, framing the issue to gain sympathy and international support.

10. Appeal to the International Community

From the Chong Bok conflict to incidents like the burning of Thai border structures, Cambodian leadership has sought to internationalise the dispute, which could be termed as "taking the case to the world." This includes portraying Thailand as the aggressor on global stages to exert diplomatic pressure and win the moral high ground, reinforcing the image of a smaller nation resisting a larger power.

Surachart argues that this “10-point offensive strategy” by Cambodia is not limited to military manoeuvres but is a coordinated political and diplomatic campaign. The comprehensive and multi-front approach gives Cambodia a considerable edge in shaping international discourse while complicating efforts for peaceful negotiation.

This evolving situation now poses a significant challenge for Thailand, potentially marking the beginning of what might be called a “Chong Bok Crisis 2.0”—a new test for Thai diplomacy and border policy amid a shifting regional security landscape.