AI forecasts: Can Southeast Asia rise above the Mekong floods?

Talking about floods, are nothing new to the Mekong Basin. But last year, following half a decade of drought, the flood left villages in Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, and northern Laos submerged, with vast farmlands and homes swept away.

The story of the 2024 flood season underscores a sobering reality: we may not be able to eliminate floods, but we can find innovative ways to reduce their devastating impact.

At the Mekong River Commission, we are committed to this cause, providing daily river monitoring and reliable flood forecasts, along with flash flood guidance and seasonable outlook to help our Member Countries manage these risks more effectively. Our MRC Flood and Drought TV Channel is a part of our continued efforts to bring updated and useful information more accessible than ever for communities across the Basin.

As the world is moving toward artificial intelligence (AI) technology, an interesting argument arises: AI and machine learning can transform forecasting. These tools make predictions faster and more affordable. This could mean that climate-vulnerable nations can have access to advanced forecasting methods. Over the next decade, this could greatly boost our ability to respond to climate challenges.

The urgency for such technology is clear. The United Nations reports that half of the world’s countries still lack early warning systems to prepare for hazardous climate-related events.

Picture communities along the Mekong River. With the crucial insights they need to prepare for and adapt to changing climate conditions, farmers can protect their crops ahead of a storm, families can secure their homes from rising waters, and local leaders can make informed decisions to keep people safe – all because AI is helping predict what’s coming.

A few Southeast Asia countries have embraced the use of AI for climate solutions. Take the Philippines, for example, after being ranked the most disaster-prone country for 2024 in the annual World Risk Index, they’re preparing to roll out a brand-new AI-based Weather Forecasting System.

Thailand is also leading the way. They’ve introduced AI-powered rainfall forecasts for the Bangkok region, delivering updates up to three hours in advance. And soon, these forecasts will be just a tap away on Facebook.

On a similar development, the MRC is stepping up, too. With support from the United Kingdom and other partners, we’ve developed an innovative One Mekong mobile app that was launched this month.

This app integrates cutting-edge AI features to provide real-time data on weather conditions, and disaster warnings. By analysing complex patterns, the AI will deliver highly accurate, localised predictions of extreme weather events, enabling timely alerts for communities at risk. With real-time data from our core river monitoring network, the app ensures that warnings reach those who need them most – whether it's incoming floods or unexpected shifts in river flow.

A standout feature of the app is its community-driven platform. This space allows users to share and receive notifications about extreme weather events directly, creating a dynamic network of real-time updates from local voices. Imagine someone upstream reporting rising water levels that could impact downstream areas – this feature turns the app into a hub for disaster preparedness.

We are also building partnerships with experts from the Pacific Disaster Center, NASA, WWF, and other civil society organizations. These collaborations will ensure data sharing, seamless approaches to technology integration, and impactful community outreach, making our tools accessible and reliable.

As the Mekong waters have receded, the region stands at a crossroads. 2025 looks to be a dry year. Yet the need to be resilient to both floods and droughts is the same. Will we harness the advanced tools at our disposal, or will we remain caught in an endless cycle of response and recovery? The answer may lie not just in our collective commitment, but in an embrace of new technology to adapt to a changing climate before it’s too late.

By Anoulak Kittikhoun, the CEO of the Mekong River Commission Secretariat