KResearch warned that arrivals could drop as low as 100,000 as outbreaks of the Delta variant both in Thailand and abroad dampen the global tourism industry.
It expects international tourism in 2021 to shrink 45 per cent and forecast recovery to pre-Covid levels would take until at least 2025.
Thailand’s tourism market is facing challenges from domestic controls as well as travel advice from other countries warning their citizens against visiting the Kingdom, the research house added.
Thai tourism is also at risk from domestic political tensions, it said.
However, KResearch predicted gradual recovery for the industry in the fourth quarter if Thailand can control infection rates in tourism destinations such as Phuket, Krabi and Surat Thani.