Post-election is critical moment to maintain peace and stability at Taiwan Strait

WHAT ARE THE KEY ISSUES TAIWAN VOTERS CARE ABOUT IN THIS ELECTION?

"Each candidate has their different policies, vis-à-vis China, vis-à-vis the rest of the world, and that I think it's one of the very important issues for the people to deliberate. Then of course we look at the domestic issues. With the high inflation, with the rising real estate prices in the housing market, with the young generation trying to look for their existence and how the domestic policies of each candidate would be able to make people feel that their next year was going to be much better than this year, the next decade was going to be much better than this decade. So I think the candidates put forward a platform domestically which I think are of equal, if not more importance, then its cross-strait policies or than its foreign policy and its Taiwan's stance and existence in the international arena."

HOW WILL CHINESE LEADER XI JINPING'S "REUNIFICATION IS INEVITABLE" NEW YEAR SPEECH IMPACT THE ELECTION?

"Normally when Chinese leaders make an open remark on Taiwan's election or the choices of the Taiwanese people, or to define what this Taiwan election means. For example, the election of 'choice between war and peace', and that rhetoric will only deteriorate the relationship between the people in Taiwan and people in China. And that would not help the peaceful communications between two sides of the strait."

HOW WILL CHINA REACT TO THE ELECTION RESULTS?

"China has repeatedly mentioned that it's going to be a critical moment between the day of election and the inauguration day which is May 20 and there will be a period of four months. And then we'll look into that as to how we're going to work with Beijing and how we're going to reinforce the people-to-people exchanges and how we're going to work with the like-minded countries and how we're going to continue to keep the peace, the stability of Taiwan Strait."

WHAT IS AT STAKE FOR CHINA?

"China’s relationship with the rest of the world, particularly the U.S.-China relationship, continues to be the biggest at stake for China. Number two, China has been facing very challenging domestic issues, both political and economic and some social issues and problems. And China would really need to find ways to come up with a better governance, or way to govern the huge country of 1.4 billion people. So I think China will try to find ways to work out this relationship with the major powers, and other major powers, while continue to make better governance domestically. And I don't think China has any incentive, if acted reasonably, to make a big fuss based on the outcome of the Taiwan election during that critical period of time."

HOW WILL THE U.S. REACT TO THE RESULTS?

"Right after the election both the Taiwan administration and Washington will and should make multiple assurances to China that the status quo - U.S. 'One China' policy and Taiwan’s basic and fundamental principles of maintaining the status quo - would not change, and nothing is changed after the election. So that China would have no excuse, no miscalculations or misinterpretations, and angry action to the outcome of the election for the new administrations. And so that assurances, both from Washington and Taipei, play a critical role, but also Beijing will need to exercise with restraint."

SCENARIO: IF LAI CHING-TE WINS THE ELECTION

"If William Lai (Lai Ching-te) wins, (he) is going to be the successor of Tsai Ing-wen not just the nominal successor, I think its platforms and policies would be identical, would be similar enough, even identical to that of Tsai Ing-wen, so I would not envision from his policy and administration the big change in the change in direction both domestic and the foreign policies."

SCENARIO: IF HOU YU-IH WINS THE ELECTION

"If Hou Yu-ih wins it's going to be a wild curveball, we don't know what his policy is because KMT (Kuomintang) is highly divided within itself that there are different factions or different groups of people that believe in different platforms, both domestic policies, particularly the cross-strait policies. Now how Hou Yu-ih is going to be able to put together, to harmonize, to make sure that he will continue to run the big administration and remains to be seen. China is going to continue to push hard and harder on his administration, same as Washington."

SCENARIO: IF KO WEN-JE WINS THE ELECTION

"Ko Wen-je is going to try to make sure that he can continue to have a conversation at least with Beijing, which is a big problem, which is the big challenge. Washington will have some doubt about what he stands for, his ability and his willingness to run the government. And I think it will be a big curveball and I think there will be lots and lots of uncertainties in the days to come."

Reuters