Xi’s zero-Covid is elephant in room blocking China’s economic recovery: Chula expert
President Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policy is derailing China’s economic recovery, according to a Chinese history professor at Chulalongkorn University.
Xi kicked off the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) National Congress in Beijing on Sunday.
In his opening speech, XI emphasised “safety” and “security”, mentioning the words 73 times compared with just 53 times at the previous congress in 2017. According to Reuters, analysts viewed the speech as an affirmation of Xi’s increasingly authoritarian path that has prioritised security, state control of the economy, more assertive diplomacy, a stronger military and pressure to seize democratically governed Taiwan.
Although he made little reference to Covid-19, China has in recent days repeatedly emphasised its commitment to Xi's zero-Covid strategy, “dashing hopes among countless Chinese citizens as well as investors that Beijing might begin exiting anytime soon a policy that has caused widespread frustration and economic damage”, said Reuters.
Xi is expected to be elected for a third term at the congress, cementing his status as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.
But Wasana Wongsurawat, an associate professor of modern Chinese history at Chulalongkorn University, said the highlight of the congress is not whether Xi will be elected to lead the country again.
“The biggest problem facing China now is that its economy cannot fully recover under Xi’s zero-Covid policy,” she said.
Wasana added that Xi will never backtrack on his own policy, since this would show he had been wrong and he would lose legitimacy as the country’s ruler.
She said Xi would instead keep the zero-Covid policy and China would face the same dilemma as in the early 1970s, when everyone agreed that Chairman Mao’s Cultural Revolution was a mistake but it could not be stopped as this would only prove that Mao was wrong.
“Xi is doing a lot of things to strengthen China’s political role on the global scale, such as expanding the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and increasing military cooperation with Russia,” said Wasana. “However, none of these will matter if China cannot solve its economic problems at the foundation.”
“If Xi remains the leader, his policy will be here to stay. If the CCP wants to abandon his policy, then he must go.”
Wasana added that it was nearly impossible for the CCP to find a solution for the zero-Covid policy, such as declaring victory over Covid or easing restrictions. If the CCP chose to do so, it would face hard questions as to why the policy was in place for so long but then suddenly considered unnecessary, she said.
Meanwhile, Thailand would have to wait before welcoming back visitors from China, its biggest tourism market, as the country will not open anytime soon, she said.
