House speaker vote: First test of ‘uneasy alliance’ between Move Forward and Pheu Thai

The Lower House is scheduled to convene its maiden meeting on Tuesday (July 4) for a swearing-in ceremony of the MPs elected in the May 14 national vote and for a secret ballot to choose the new House speaker and two deputy speakers.

Move Forward and Pheu Thai have both clearly said they want the seat of the House speaker, who also doubles as the Parliament president ex-officio.

As the chief of the legislature, the speaker wields a fair degree of influence in parliamentary affairs, including the prioritisation of bills to be tabled for deliberation and issued into legislation.

The two parties – who together have 292 MP seats between them in the 312-MP coalition – launched a political tug-of-war soon after their coalition was announced. They have been battling for the coveted position through mainstream media, social media, and comments from unidentified “informed party sources”.

Though Move Forward’s two-time MP and former veterinarian, Padipat “Mor Ong” Suntiphada, has been tipped to be its candidate for the House speaker’s post, Pheu Thai has not yet said if it will back Move Forward’s choice in full force during the vote.

The latest speculation – reported on Friday by many media outlets citing an unidentified Pheu Thai source – suggested that the second-largest coalition partner has agreed not to compete with Move Forward for the speaker’s seat following an “informal talk” on the matter. However, these reports were denied by senior Pheu Thai figures.

They said the result of the talk was that negotiators had failed to reach an agreement and would discuss the subject again at a meeting on Sunday with representatives from other coalition partners.

However, formal discussion of the subject was put off again until Monday – the eve of the House vote on the next speaker.

Pheu Thai said the party’s executive board would make a final decision on the matter on Monday, citing the need to sound out the opinions of its MPs.

A test of relationship
In the first round of an open clash between the two parties, Pheu Thai is unlikely to clearly nominate its candidate to contest against Move Forward. But analysts expect an MP from a party outside the Move Forward-led coalition to nominate someone from Pheu Thai – probably Suchart Tancharoen, who served as deputy speaker in the last House of Representatives.

Since it is a secret ballot, many Pheu Thai MPs will likely vote for Suchart unless he withdraws from the contest. Unlike Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew, who announced he would withdraw if nominated, Suchart has not been reached by the media for comment on the matter.
 

For many analysts, Suchart – who jumped from the outgoing ruling Palang Pracharath Party to rejoin Pheu Thai before the election – is a “perfect choice” to serve as a link between Pheu Thai and Palang Pracharath leader Prawit Wongsuwon, who is believed to have retained his influence over many senators.

While in the post-coup junta, General Prawit was one of the committee members empowered to select senators.

Prawit also visited the UK to reportedly “seal the deal” about forming the next coalition government with former PM and Pheu Thai patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra.

Thaksin has been living in self-exile in the United Kingdom.

Uneasy alliance?
On the surface, Move Forward and Pheu Thai seem to enjoy a cordial alliance, but behind the scenes, they appear to be involved in some kind of power play.

It appears as if one of them is unhappy with this alliance, though it is Move Forward that needs this arrangement more than Pheu Thai.

If it wants to form a coalition government, the liberal four-year-old party has no other choice but to cling to the existing alliance with Pheu Thai. Move Forward has also dismissed possible tie-ups with big parties in the current outgoing administration, which are now excluded from the new coalition.

It is rare for the two largest winners of an election to form a coalition government, as they normally contest to form their own alliance. Move Forward won 151 MP seats in the latest general election, just 10 seats more than Pheu Thai.

However, Move Forward and Pheu Thai appear to be pressured to keep up with the image of being in the “pro-democracy camp”, as opposed to the outgoing coalition led by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, which has been labelled “conservative” or “dictatorial” by critics.

Many of their supporters expect the two former opposition parties to work together as a government.

The uneasiness in this union was reflected in a recent remark by Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew, who compared their alliance to a “marriage arranged by the 25 million combined voters”.