Election results show a strong message from Thai voters, say analysts

Speaking exclusively to The Nation, academics and observers offer their insights and perspectives on the May 14 election, and the way ahead for the next government headed by Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat.

As the unofficial vote count of the general election points to a pivotal swing in Thai politics, academics were unanimous in one opinion, expressed eloquently by Assoc Prof Jade Donavanik: “It is time for Thailand to move forward to a new chapter.”

Jade, who is chairman of the Faculty of Law at the College of Asian Scholars, said: “The record turnout of voters shows that Thai people of all generations nationwide have now uniformly taken power back in their own hands and they are enthusiastic to exercise their right. Sitting back and doing nothing will not make a change.”

Assoc Prof Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Centre for International Trade Studies, University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), said: “Thai people are fed up and they were not satisfied with the previous administration."

“Move Forward Party has clearly announced its policies boldly and directly, and that is what the public wants to hear,” he added.

The Pita administration is expected to push for massive changes in Thai politics and society.

Move Forward leader and the party's PM candidate Pita announced on Monday (May 15) his plan to partner Pheu Thai and four other parties to ensure the junta-appointed Senate does not block their government formation.

The alliance, which also includes Thai Sang Thai, Prachachart, Thai Liberal and Fair parties, will give the coalition 309 seats. However, that number will still be short of the 376 seats needed to ensure Pita gets the top job.

Thailand’s 30th PM-in-waiting and the five allies are ready to discuss details, such as people, policies and working plan.

Pita added that his party would draft a memorandum of understanding with the five parties to ensure transparency.

“A coalition with six political parties would be enough to set up a majority government”, he said.

“If Pita becomes Thailand’s new prime minister, there will be a lot of changes in terms of laws and regulations, improvement and reduction of inequality and capital monopolies, and in many more areas, as well as his promise to follow a 100-day road map”, said Aat.

But is Thailand ready for this change?

As of 4pm on Monday, the Election Commission (EC) declared that the Move Forward Party had won Sunday’s general election, with over 99% of votes counted. The party won 152 seats – 113 constituency and 39 party-list seats. This clearly points to a new direction for Thailand and that a new future is about to take shape in just a few months. In addition, the North and Northeast of Thailand, widely known to be Pheu Thai's stronghold, yielded a surprise. The areas changed from red to orange colour.

“Under the Pita government, many reforms are likely to take place in many areas and institutions, and some changes may be hard to bear for conservatives,” said Jade.

He raised concerns about further polarisation within the country. The liberal and conservative parties are at opposite poles, therefore, any changes need to be introduced creatively and carefully.

“It is not advisable to do anything radical,” he said.

“We have to admit that despite the vote result, there are still groups in both political parties and citizens who are conservative. Any changes may trigger these people to come out and voice their opinion, especially on sensitive issues like the reform of the monarchy. This may result in chaos, conflict and even bloodshed," Jade warned.

The Move Forward Party and its members are all quite young and inexperienced in this area, but they already have the big task of running the country,

“Being young is not a problem as they can invite advisers and experts to guide them on how to run the country,” said Aat.

Both academics agreed that there are possibilities of political turmoil and conflict due to radical disagreement from both sides. “The conservatives must respect the other side's decision," Aat added.

“Both sides need to step back and work together in achieving what is in the best interests of the people and the country,” said Jade.

Thailand created another landmark moment in the country’s political history on Sunday with 75% of the electorate casting their votes. The electorate's backing for the Move Forward Party, which has won the most number of seats, has left observers stunned. Academics and analysts are calling the result a "political pivot" and "earthquake".

As Move Forward weaves together a government in partnership with allies, here is a timeline of events in July-August, leading up to the formation of the next government.

Section 85 of the Constitution stipulates that the EC must declare the official results of the election within 60 days from election day.

If candidates or voters believe the election was unfair, they are allowed to file objections with the EC before or within 30 days of the release of the result.

Within 180 days of the result being announced, people could file objections if they believe the spending by a political party or its candidates exceeded the cap set by the EC.

 A constituency MP candidate cannot spend more than 1.9 million baht on the election campaign.

A political party cannot spend more than 44 million baht in campaigning for its party-list candidates. The rules come into effect from the day the lower House is dissolved until election day.

The first parliamentary meeting to elect the president and vice presidents of the National Assembly must be arranged by the EC within 15 days of the declaration of the election result.

After the president and vice presidents of the National Assembly have been appointed, another parliamentary meeting will be held to elect the prime minister.

According to the current Constitution, the prime minister has to get a total of at least 376 votes in the House of Representatives (500 seats) and Senate (250 seats).

The elected prime minister can form the cabinet after getting royal endorsement from His Majesty the King.

It is expected that the new cabinet would be appointed at the beginning of August.