Thais expect the unexpected in ‘contest for their country’s future’

"This election is the most important one in my lifetime,” political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak told The Nation. It will decide Thailand's political future, the direction of its economic growth, and reveal the political maturity of its people, explained the professor of International Relations at Chulalongkorn University.

For nine years, Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-Ocha has failed to clearly articulate a vision for Thailand's future and as a result, the country’s economy, politics, and international standing have fallen to their lowest level, Thitinan said.

"I have never seen Thailand’s international standing so low. So, if [Prayuth] or someone like him comes back, we will see Thailand fall further.... [But] if we have a change of the government, many things will be better," he said.  

Politics have been tumultuous in Thailand for two decades, he added, noting the rise of single-party governments, two military coups, two new constitutions, and the dissolution of multiple parties, including Thai Rak Thai, People Power, and Future Forward. 

These upheavals have taught people the value of politics and how concrete policies can enhance their lives, he said.

"This election is a contest for the future. And the contest is not favourable to conservative policies because they have been losing all the elections ... [The election] is going to determine whether Thailand moves forward or remains stuck,” he said.

Political scientist Panitan Wattanayagorn told The Nation that the next election is more than just another unpredictable move in what sometimes seems to be the chaotic development of the country’s democracy. 

This election is more important because people who have lived through many political upheavals, as well as a young generation that has witnessed them, are very alert and determined to exercise their right to vote, said the associate professor at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science,

"This is another test for the national system, which has shifted from proportional representation to a more stable system of elected houses, appointed upper houses and to a ballot system in which voters can choose between policy popularity and individual popularity," Panitan added. 

The election is proceeding as expected, but many surprises remain because no one can predict how the voting patterns of the younger and older generations, as well as those who are not expressing their views, will play out, he said.

Panitan predicts that the election will produce a coalition government. The new administration will likely take office in June or July and no later than August, he said.  

"The lower house must reconvene, and then they must select the prime minister, and then the prime minister must form a Cabinet and request an audience at the palace. And then they can get to work,” he said. 

This election will be another contest between democratic ideals and military might, Panitan said. 

The charisma of candidates will be a deciding factor, he added, explaining that Thai elections are heavily influenced by the personalities of candidates.

Thitinan said Thai society is undergoing a transformation: Thai voters want the military sent back to their barracks so that the country can move forward.

The inclusion of pro-military elements in the election commission, and the controversial involvement of the Constitutional Court and anti-corruption commission in the democratic process are legitimate concerns, he said.

"We have reason to be concerned because we believe that it will not be an election in which the winner will automatically assume power,” Thitinan said.

The potential losers – the military-backed Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation parties – along with the regulatory agencies may throw a wrench or two into the democratic process. 

"They will engage in fishy business. They will do something that is underhanded to keep power,” he said, adding: "That's why Thais say expect the unexpected."