Democrats upbeat on bagging at least 39 House seats in South

Sources said the party’s core members recently evaluated the Democrat Party’s popularity in the South and announced it would win in at least 39 of the 58 constituencies. This was before the Election Commission redistributed House seats in response to a charter court ruling.

The Constitutional Court ruled on Friday that non-Thai residents cannot be included when calculating the number of people represented by an MP. In line with this edict, the number of constituencies in the South rose from 58 to 60.

According to sources, the Democrat Party believed it could net the following seats in the South before the constituency boundaries were redrawn:

Chumphon: 2 of 3

Surat Thani: 5 of 7

Ranong: 0 of 1

Phang Nga: 2 of 3

Phuket: 2 of 3

Krabi: 2 of 3

Nakhon Si Thammarat: 7 of 9 (before the number was adjusted to 10)

Phatthalung: 2 of 2

Songkhla: 7 of 9

Satun: 0 of 2

Pattani: 3 of 4 (before the number was adjusted to 5)

Yala: 1 of 3

Narathiwat: 2 of 5

Trang: 4 of 4

The sources said the party’s core members now believe the Democrats can capture as many as 40 House seats in the South.

The South was the party’s stronghold for decades until it lost its grip in 2019 when Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha and his Palang Pracharat Party were at their peak in popularity. Democrat Party won only 22 out of 50 House seats in the South that year.

Before the 2014 coup, the Democrats always won 90-95% of the seats in the South, and once it bagged all seats barring one.