Thailand's New Calculus: US-China-India Triad

Historically balancing its relations between China and the United States, Thailand now confronts the emergence of India as a formidable diplomatic alternative. This is to ascertain Thailand's concerns about China's economic slowdown and its desire to diversify its economy beyond tourism, with India offering technological know-how and investment opportunities. India's diplomatic finesse could also serve as a bridge between Thailand's relationships with China and the United States. As Thailand grapples with internal political challenges and ethical considerations, it must strike a nuanced balance in its foreign policy decisions, with a potential pivot towards a more balanced approach between the United States and India offering economic stability, political cohesion, and ethical reputation on the global stage.

Thailand's Diplomatic Balancing Act

Thailand, classified as a middle power in international relations, has long been engaged in a nuanced diplomatic balancing act. The nation endeavours to sustain a delicate equilibrium between two prominent global superpowers, each characterised by distinct economic and strategic objectives: the United States and China. On one front, China's substantial investments and trade partnerships have fostered a deepening of economic bonds with Thailand. Conversely, the United States continues to serve as an indispensable ally, bolstering security cooperation and enhancing Thailand's defence capabilities.

Amidst the historical ties between Thailand and China, concerns have arisen due to China's economic slowdown, marked by issues like soft consumption, a weakening currency, and excessive local government debt. These concerns weigh heavily on Thailand, particularly its export sector, which is already grappling with the challenges of a global recession and geopolitical uncertainties and is especially sensitive to China's economic performance.

India's Diplomatic Alternative Calculus

With the emergence of India as an emerging great power, complexity has been added to Thailand's foreign policy calculus. India's influence in the region continues to grow, and Thailand must meticulously assess its evolving relations with these major powers to safeguard its interests and maintain its position as a pivotal player in Southeast Asia. India's strengths lie in its ability to provide economic collaboration that complements Thailand's diversification efforts. With a thriving digital economy and expertise in new-energy vehicles, India can offer technological know-how and investment opportunities, providing Thailand with a credible alternative to its reliance on Chinese economic support. This economic synergy aligns with Thailand's goal of reducing its dependence on tourism.

Furthermore, India's diplomatic finesse can serve as a bridge between Thailand's intricate diplomatic dance with China and its interests in strengthening ties with the United States. India has a track record of managing cordial relations with both global powers and a proven ability to balance economic and strategic interests effectively. Acting as an intermediary, India has the capacity to assist Thailand in navigating its relationships with these nations, ensuring that it maximises the benefits of its engagement with both without compromising its core interests. Thailand can leverage its growing partnership with India to enhance its diplomatic standing in the Asia-Pacific region, aligning with its ambition to become a pivotal player in Southeast Asia.

Shifting Dynamics of Power

India as a formidable diplomatic alternative has indeed added significant complexity to Thailand's foreign policy considerations. As India ascends as a global power, Thailand finds itself at a crossroads, compelled to navigate the intricate dynamics between major powers. Predominantly, the rise of India introduces a fresh dimension to Thailand's diplomatic calculus. With historical and cultural links to India and the Indian government's "Act East" policy focusing on Southeast Asia, Thailand has a renewed opportunity to diversify its diplomatic engagements beyond its traditional partnership with China. This diversification could offer Thailand greater strategic leverage and the potential to secure its interests in an evolving global landscape.

Balancing Act: China, India, and the United States

In this intricate diplomatic dance, Thailand must carefully assess the evolving dynamics among these major powers. Balancing relationships with China, India, and the United States whilst manoeuvring the broader U.S.-China rivalry is a delicate challenge. Thailand's historical defence and technology alliances with the United States contrast with its deep economic ties to China. Srettha's choices will be pivotal in determining Thailand's role in the Asia-Pacific region. The nation's capacity to deftly manage these relationships, exploit its historical mediation role, and diversify its economic partnerships will be crucial factors in defining Thailand's position in this ever-changing geopolitical environment.

India's Ascendancy and Significance of Pandemic

India's meteoric ascent on the global stage has become an undeniable phenomenon. As the world's fastest-growing economy and currently ranked as the third-largest economy in terms of nominal GDP, India holds substantial appeal for nations seeking to broaden their diplomatic affiliations. Thailand, historically reliant on tourism as a foundational element of its economy, is increasingly awakening to the potential advantages of cultivating more substantial relations with India. India's remarkable economic growth trajectory, coupled with its reputation as a dependable and influential ally, presents a compelling rationale for Thailand to reassess and realign its foreign policy priorities.

During the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, it further underscored India's significance as a strategic diplomatic partner. During the crisis, India assumed a pivotal role in aiding Thailand's recovery efforts. Notably, it led efforts to revive Thai tourism and facilitate bilateral trade, thereby unequivocally demonstrating its dedication to enhancing relations between the two nations. This has prompted Thailand to reassess its diplomatic relationships in a comprehensive review of its diplomatic landscape and consider India as an increasingly prominent actor in its foreign policy calculus.

Srettha’s Diplomacy and Internal Challenges

Srettha's recent presence at the United Nations General Assembly in New York drew significant attention, mainly because of the investments garnered from tech giants such as Microsoft Corp., Google, and Tesla Inc. Nevertheless, discussions about human rights and environmental sustainability were conspicuously absent. As Thailand seeks to bolster its global connections, it faces the pivotal task of harmonising economic interests with ethical considerations, all aimed at securing a future characterised by sustainability and fairness for its citizens.

Whilst the internal challenges confronting Srettha pertaining to the political coalition and the pro-democracy movement in Thailand may not have been acknowledged or may have deliberately been excluded from discussion, Thailand simultaneously grapples with external diplomatic intricacies. These complexities arise as the nation's ruling coalition, composed of erstwhile political adversaries, faces inquiries regarding its enduring cohesion and effectiveness. Concurrently, the pro-democracy party, which secured the majority of votes in the general election, remains under the imminent spectre of dissolution. These intricate dynamics within the domestic political landscape have implications for Thailand's foreign policy determinations, profoundly influencing its capacity to establish steadfast and uniform relations with the global powers that shape international affairs.

Striking a Nuanced Balance

Srettha faces the daunting task of striking a nuanced balance in Thailand's foreign policy. The shifting dynamics in the US-China-India triad require careful consideration of economic interests, ethical concerns, domestic political challenges, and the geopolitical landscape.

As Thailand navigates this complex web of diplomacy, it is essential to recognise that the world's political and economic dynamics are continuously evolving. Thailand's foreign policy decisions must be agile and responsive to these changes. While China has been a longstanding partner, the emergence of India and the overtures from the United States offer Thailand a peculiar opportunity to diversify its diplomatic alliances.

Primarily, during the pandemic, it served as a stark reminder of the importance of reliable diplomatic relationships. India's support during the crisis underscores the potential benefits of a more prominent role for India in Thailand's diplomatic calculus. Thailand's ability to balance these diplomatic equations will have far-reaching implications for its economic stability, political cohesion, and ethical standing on the global stage.

On the whole, amidst the dynamic and ever-evolving geopolitical landscape, Thailand's capacity to adapt its foreign policy emerges as a paramount imperative, crucial for safeguarding its interests and preserving its global relevance. Whilst China has stood as a longstanding and economically significant partner, the strategic recalibration towards a more balanced approach, potentially involving collaboration with both the United States and India, serves to diversify Thailand's diplomatic portfolio while fortifying its resilience in the face of shifting global dynamics. This strategic pivot repositions Thailand as a central player in a possible triad, offering not only economic stability and political cohesion but also an elevated ethical standing. It reinforces Thailand's pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of the Asia-Pacific region.

It is paramount to recognise that the actualisation of a US-China-India triad remains uncertain, contingent upon the decisions made by Srettha regarding alignment with specific global powers. Therefore, should Srettha prioritise a balanced relationship with bilateral great powers, such as the United States and India, Thailand's diplomatic journey will be intricately shaped by the delicate equilibrium it strikes among these influential global players, ultimately strengthening its position in international affairs.

Prem Singh Gill is an Adjunct Lecturer at the Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University and Thammasat University.