Fighting for the world: Tackling the impacts from El Nino

El Nino is triggered by a rise in surface temperatures of the eastern Pacific Ocean, leading to a phase of planetary warming. The natural phenomenon usually occurs every two to seven years and brings reduced rainfall in Southeast Asia and southern Australia. The impacts are as wide-ranging as they are serious, and affect agriculture, exports and tourism among other sectors.

With the world at a tipping point, there is an urgent need for action to cope with this natural disaster.

The Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015 with a long-term goal of keeping the rise in mean global temperature well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably limiting the increase to 1.5C.

To achieve this goal, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced as soon as possible and reach net zero by the middle of the 21st century. Emissions should be cut by 50% by 2030.

Many countries including Thailand have pledged to reach the green goals, but success is still too low. Thailand aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero carbon emissions by 2065.

Even though the Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index 2021 ranked Thailand's long-term climate risk index as ninth in the world, the country is being affected by rising heat, PM2.5 [particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter] pollution, drought and flash floods.

The government and private sector are taking action on global warming, but there are still limitations, such as eco-friendly innovations and technologies, as well as public participation.

What can we do with El Nino?

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) forecasts a 90% probability of El Nino continuing during the second half of 2023, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) Asia-Pacific Office told The Nation in a recent interview.

Characterised by a warming of the eastern Pacific, El Nino increases the likelihood of breaking temperature records and has a range of impacts such as drought in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as Africa, and flooding in South America.

The climate phenomenon raises the risk of poor harvests and consequently, of malnutrition. Flooding, meanwhile, creates a fertile environment for water-borne diseases and mosquito-spread viruses.

El Nino disrupts commodity markets, affecting food prices and thus exacerbating the impact on already hard-pressed populations, the office added.

“The declaration of El Nino is a signal to governments to prepare for the climate phenomenon,” Diana Patricia Mosquera Calle, deputy chief of the UNDRR regional office for Asia and the Pacific, told The Nation.

"Early warnings and anticipatory action are vital to limit the negative impacts on people’s health and well-being, ecosystems and the economy.”

She stressed these measures must target those most at risk of the negative effects of El Nino. This requires more domestic and international investment in disaster preparedness and risk reduction, which often lags behind.

“Not only is it cheaper to invest in preparedness and risk reduction than in disaster response but people’s lives and livelihoods are at stake and disruption to the economy can be avoided. Another key element is a stronger focus on disaster risk reduction and preparedness at the community level, involving villages, towns and provincial authorities.”

Thailand has made considerable progress towards improving urban resilience to disasters through the “Making Cities Resilient 2030” (MCR2030) initiative, which is a collaborative effort involving the United Nations, local governments, academia and other partners, she added.

The initiative’s primary goal is to strengthen capacities for disaster risk reduction and resilience at municipal levels, which contributes to the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

UNDRR supports countries, including Thailand, as part of a one-UN effort under the leadership of the UN Resident Coordinator, to strengthen disaster preparedness, develop early warning systems, advance anticipatory action and reduce disaster risk.

Civil society actions needed

The UN Resident Coordinator Office (RCO) in Thailand said there are three key areas that the UN in Thailand prioritises aligned to the National Strategy, one specifically supporting Thailand’s transition to a green, inclusive, low carbon economy, as well as environmental resilience.

“In the long-term, greater leadership on the drive towards carbon neutrality in Thailand may contribute to mitigating drastic environmental impacts,” the office said, adding that initiatives can take the form of an in-country “SDG accelerator”, as well as set an example to other countries in the region.

RCO said the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment has been recognised as a universal human right by the UN General Assembly.

"Civil society must play an important and legitimate role as they bring to bear multifaceted local and grassroots approaches to policies informed by a diversity of voices, especially those who are the most vulnerable," the office said.

"It also requires front-lining young people into decision-making to tap into their drive, innovative spirit, and creative energies, as custodians of the future."

Young people can play a dominant role in green transformation by lowering emissions, protecting the environment, and boosting social and economic inclusion to leave no one behind.

"We are midway to the 2030 Agenda, yet only 12% of SDGs are on track globally," the office said.

In Thailand, progress has been more robust with nearly half of the indicators on track but more needs to be done to accelerate climate-related goals.

Thailand's commitment to climate change

Kiatchai Maitriwong, executive director of Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organisation (TGO), said climate change triggered four risks to lives – flood, forest fire, drought and heat waves.

"Countries that have not faced these issues will suffer severe impacts," he said, adding that Bangkok could be at risk of being inundated due to rising temperatures. “Island countries, such as Maldives, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, are also sensitive to this matter”.

He pointed out that PM2.5 triggered by forest fires had caused many tourists to flee from Chiang Mai.

“Forest fires often break out in national parks, followed by plantations. Thailand had lost forest area due to people and heat," he said, adding that the country has to deal with this issue to prevent further impacts on the ecosystem.

“Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam are facing regular heatwaves. We feel like we are living inside a sauna.”

Kiatchai went on to say that many organisations are working on climate change mitigation, especially the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which hosts the Conference of the Parties (COP), and the European Union (EU), which has launched its own green deal initiatives.

Climate change mitigation came after research indicated that average global temperature had increased by 1-2C from the pre-industrial level due to 2.4 trillion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions.

The 2021 COP26 summit in Glasgow predicted that global temperature could rise by 3C if humans do not act on climate change mitigation, he said, adding that 50 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases are emitted annually.

He expects COP28 in Dubai from November 30 to December 12 this year to focus on financial support for countries that face limitations in climate change mitigation. Thailand is among the countries that need climate action funding to achieve its carbon neutrality and net-zero emission goals. Startups require funds to work on this issue too.

Greenhouse gas reduction is not enough

Tara Buakamsri, country director of Greenpeace Thailand, said El Nino and La Nina impact people all over the world, especially in Southeast Asia.

El Nino means that tourism in seaside provinces will be affected by coral bleaching triggered by an increase in sea temperature while the drought will lead to food shortages and consumer product price hikes.

Data collection is necessary to boost the accuracy of El Nino impacts, as the government can use those data to implement measures to deal with El Nino in each zone. However, he noted that the recent political turmoil has meant that government is facing limitations in dealing with extreme weather and slow-onset events, such as saltwater intrusion and coastal erosion,

In addition, the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and action plans to deal with El Nino focus on long-term solutions rather than urgent issues, such as flash flooding and drought. It also places more emphasis on greenhouse gas reduction rather than concerns about climate change's impact on lives, properties and the economy.

Damage and loss of lives, assets and the economy cost over 100 billion baht, he said, adding that it is difficult to enable people to cope with climate change.

Damage and loss evaluations could draw financial support to make Thailand resilient to climate change but he expects talks on financial support at the upcoming COP28 to focus more on carbon credit mechanisms than climate change adaptation.