Future of Thailand Series: Experts hold forth on challenges, and ideas to rejuvenate economy

Business leaders and politicians gathered to discuss the mechanisms driving the Thai economy and formulate policies to push it forward.

The conference, organised by Post Today and Nation Group, was held at the Grand Hyatt Erawan Hotel in Bangkok on Thursday.

During the conference, two panel discussions were held, one focusing on the strategy of driving the Thai economy and the second on developing economic policies.

The first panel was led by Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi, former secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, and included Marisa Sukosol Nunbhakdi, president of the Thai Hotels Association, Visit Limlurcha, vice president of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, and Napas Paorohitya, chief marketing officer at Bumrungrad International Hospital.

Critical economic reforms

Supachai said five economic reforms would strengthen the Thai economy. Among them is loosening restrictions and encouraging consumer spending, he said. Upskilling and reskilling workers, as well as having adequate food, energy and healthcare in case of sudden emergency scenarios. Having allies at the global level and geopolitics are also crucial for the national economy, he said.

“We need to be resilient and never give up in any crisis,” he added.

Marisa said that the hospitality industry in the Asia-Pacific region saw the slowest recovery rate globally, growing by just 23%.

Tourism, however, is expected to see a 70% jump and generate a trillion baht in revenue this year, she added.

"Travel trend predictions for this year are ‘revenge’ travel, family travel [from India and the Middle East], and sustainability travel," Marisa said.

She suggested that the government had set travel trends as part of the national agenda and monitor it closely, as it affects many industries.

Meanwhile, Visit said Thailand’s exports have risen by 27%, especially sugar and molasses, vegetable and animal fat as well as frozen and processed chicken and animal feed. Thailand is currently the second biggest exporter of food in Asia and 13th in the world.

“The supply of wheat and corn has dropped by 30% and 40%, respectively, due to the Russia-Ukraine war, resulting in inflation and high food prices,” Visit added.

This surge in prices and drop in supply has hit developing and undeveloped countries the hardest.

Labour shortage a worry

The biggest cause for concern is labour shortages and an ageing society, both Marisa and Visit said.

“The future trend in the food industry is leaning towards more protein intake and wellness,” Visit said.

Also, in line with sustainability and environment protection goals, the government should push for plant-based diets and protein derived from insects.

Napas from Bumrungrad Hospital said that the pandemic had taught people to take better care of themselves, which has bolstered medical tourism and the wellness industry over the years.

From 2020 to 2025, medical tourism is expected to account for 9.9% of total arrivals and contribute 7 trillion baht in revenue by 2028.

However, Napas said that Thailand attracts four times more medical tourists than Singapore, but their total revenue contribution is just 19%. This shows we’re still not doing enough, he said.

“Thailand only covers 2% of the global medical tourism market due to the limited pool of talent in the medical industry,” Napas added.

Policy imperatives

The second panel discussion was led by Democrat Party leader and Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit. Also participating were Natural Resources and Environment Minister Varawut Silpa-archa, who is also Chartthaipattana Party leader, Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, Chart Pattana Kla Party leader Korn Chatikavanij, Thai Sang Thai Party’s economics board chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree, former finance minister and ex-Palang Pracharath Party leader Uttama Saowanayon along with Kittirat Na-Ranong, deputy leader of Pheu Thai, the key opposition party.

The subject of the panel discussion was “policy push” and was divided into two parts.

Economic measure or populism?

In the first part, each party representative shared their ideas on kickstarting the economy, before answering questions posed by the public and Nation Group editors.

Kittirat’s idea was to reduce tax rates by 10%, boost the minimum wage to 600 baht, as well as cut loan interest rates and push up the interest offered for bank deposits.

Pita, however, disagreed, saying this would widen the income gap in Thailand. Instead, he said, the three-step process of boosting the economy would be amplifying the SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis, boosting GDP, reducing inequality and then formulating policies.

“Up to 99% of Thais are still in hell. We must turn problems into opportunities, and for this, I want to add a million jobs to the market,” the Move Forward leader said.

Varawut, meanwhile, suggested that the country’s resources create wealth and opportunity for everyone.

“Every generation should get a chance and hope. Nobody should be left behind and there should be welfare for all,” Varawut said.

Jurin said his policy was to make money and strengthen the population and the nation.

“We need to focus on building soft power and modernising our identity. The prime minister must become the country’s salesman,” Jurin added.

“How do we kickstart the economy when only 14 million people hold social security cards and 6 million of them are blacklisted?” asked Korn.

Uttama responded by saying, “We are living in the age of insecurity and instability,” adding that “democratic power is not populism”.

Thai Sang Thai Party’s Supant said his party’s policy is to “build a bad debt rehabilitation fund, boost income and create opportunities for people”.

Questions from the public

The first question the public asked was what the party leaders' thoughts were about foreigners taking over Thai people’s jobs.

Kittirat pointed out that some occupations were reserved for Thais and foreigners were only allowed in some jobs.

As for combating the surge in fuel prices, Pita suggested that the government save energy by introducing electric public transportation.

Varawut, meanwhile, said the way to fix the rising household debt would be to strengthen the community system and use knowledge in the agricultural sector to create new products.

As for dealing with online scams, Korn suggested that the public be educated about the dangers of disclosing personal information.

Nation Group's queries

When it was the Nation Group’s turn to pose questions, the editors presented the politicians with a “lucky draw”.

Varawut went first and picked a question on “What mechanism should be used to boost exports instead of just trade diplomacy?"

The minister said the best thing would be to “develop products that meet world standards and promote sustainability”.

Korn responded to his question on foreign ownership of land, by saying it depends on the timing and society’s acceptance.

As for Thailand’s moves to keep up with the global green movement, Uttama suggested it build a more successful bio-circular-green economic model.

Supant’s question was about what he believes the minimum wage should be, to which he responded: “It’s not about how much money one should get. It’s about how much money is left in people’s pockets at the end of the month.”

Replying to a question on how Thailand should act to gain a geopolitical advantage over China and the United States, Kittirat said: “The most important thing is to be neutral and sincere.”

The last question was what the most urgent economic policy should be, to which Pita said the first 100 days of any government should be spent improving agriculture, industry and tourism.