2.5% growth in Thai exports seen provided conditions remain unchanged

Poonthawee Chaiwijitmalakoon, assistant director of UTCC’s Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting, told the press on Monday that the centre expects Thailand’s export growth to lie within the range of 2-3%.

He said the kingdom should export goods worth $291.68 billion based on the belief that the global economy will grow between 2.3%-3.1%, that crude oil prices would lie between $76-$82, and the baht would be between 34 and 35 baht against the US dollar.

The export growth projection was also based on the condition that Thailand’s inflation rate would vary between 0.5 and 1.55 this year, Poonthawee added.

He said there were five positive factors for Thailand’s exports, namely:

• The International Monetary Fund has revised upwards its global GDP forecast to 3.1% this year.

• The international trade value in 2024 is expected to grow by 3.3% due to dropping inflation rates in many countries, and the recovery of the US and Chinese economies.

• The Thai currency is expected to weaken.

• Global inflation rates are expected to drop, resulting in lower interest rates in many countries.

• Several countries are expected to lower their policy interest rates. The US Federal Reserve, in particular, is expected to lower its policy rate in May.

Poonthawee noted that if the baht strengthens in the second half of this year, it could affect exports and reduce Thailand’s competitiveness.

Also, he said, the ongoing attacks against ships in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels could affect shipping costs and hurt Thailand’s exports.

The Chinese economy has not fully recovered due to fundamental issues, especially in the property sector, and this could affect Thailand’s exports, he said.

Thai goods that are expected to show strong growth this year include semiconductors, transistors, diodes, fresh fruits, frozen fruits, transformers and parts, automobiles and parts, machines and electronic boards.