Thai GDP growth in 2023 lower than BOT figure: PM Office

The document, which was prepared by the Fiscal Policy Office ( FPO ), shows that the slowdown in the Thai economy was due to various factors, including the ongoing global supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, and the rising cost of living.

Chai said that the government is concerned about the slow growth of the Thai economy and that it is taking steps to address the underlying challenges. These steps include investing in infrastructure, promoting innovation, and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises.

The release of the confidential document has sparked a debate about the accuracy of the BOT's economic forecasts. Some economists have argued that the BOT's forecasts are too optimistic and that the Thai economy is likely to grow at a slower pace than the BOT has predicted.

The BOT has defended its forecasts, saying that they are based on the best available information. The BOT has also said that it is monitoring the global economic situation closely and that it will adjust its forecasts as needed.

The lower-than-expected GDP growth for 2023 was due to the contraction in the industrial sector, especially in products related to automobiles, computers, and electronics, according to the Finance Ministry.

The final figures for the past year are expected to show exports contracting by 1.5%, influenced by the economic slowdown in key trading partners. Meanwhile, imports are projected to contract by 1.9%.

Despite these challenges, the Thai economy is expected to be supported by the tourism sector, which is experiencing significant expansion, and private consumption.

For this year, the Finance Ministry anticipates an accelerated economic growth of 2.8%, driven by various factors, including increased exports and the continued growth of the tourism sector. It is expected that the number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand will reach 33.5 million, representing a 19.5% increase, with tourism revenue reaching 1.48 trillion baht, up by 23.6%.

The finance ministry suggests four key areas on which focus would be placed for sustainable and long-term economic growth:

1. Infrastructure development, including sustainable energy use, investments in digitalisation, and transportation development to create new opportunities for the country.

2. Skill development to prepare the workforce with essential skills for global economic success.

3. Fiscal stability, emphasising responsible management of public spending and debt levels to maintain long-term financial sustainability.

4. The economic situation in China, which could affect Thailand's exports and the recovery of the tourism sector.

Additionally, it is crucial to closely monitor key factors that may impact the Thai economy, such as global geopolitical conflicts, election outcomes in key trading partner countries and fluctuations in the global financial markets.

This comprehensive approach aims to foster sustainable economic growth, resilience, and stability for Thailand in the long run.