Next election to boost liquidity in Thai economy by up to 50 billion baht
An estimated 40-50 billion baht is expected to be circulating in the Thai economy during the next general election to be held later this year, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) said on Thursday.
That is regarded as a positive factor in addition to an expected jump in the number of tourists coming to Thailand this year. Economic growth is predicted in the vicinity of 4%.
The Election Commission has tentatively scheduled May 7 for the next national vote if the current House of Representatives completes its four-year term as scheduled on March 23. An earlier date can be expected in case of a premature House dissolution.
UTCC president Assoc Prof Thanavath Phonvichai said on Thursday that the risk of a global economic recession would ease in the first half of 2023, and the Thai economy would see a clear recovery in gross domestic product in the latter half of the year, with the GDP expected to grow between 3.5% and 4%.
He said that signs of an economic recovery included the earlier-than-expected return of Chinese tourists.
Thanavath pointed to an easing of the tight situation in the global economy, including improvement in US inflation with less frequent interest rate increases, and “not too expensive” oil prices at $75-$85 per barrel.
He said Thailand’s exports would grow 1-2%.
According to the university's Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting, the consumer confidence index in December increased for the seventh month in a row, the highest in the last 25 months. The index stood at 49.7 in December 2022, up from 47.9 a month earlier.
The centre attributed the increase to a clear recovery in Thailand’s tourism, improvement in the country’s Covid-19 situation, and lower oil prices when compared to the first half of the year.
Thanavath, who is the chief adviser to the centre, said that Thai consumers were expected to spend more from the first quarter of this year due to increased confidence in an economic recovery.
However, Thai consumers still have concerns about the rising cost of living due to the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the upward trend of interest rates, according to Thanavath.
