China's durian market threatens to become less juicy for Thai exporters
Thailand’s durian exporters should start making adjustments as fierce competition is bound to reduce their market share in China from 2025.
Krungthai Compass research centre warned on Friday that successful durian cultivation in China and competitors’ expansion will make Thailand’s market share drop from 95.9 per cent in 2021 to 90.4 per cent in 2025 and 88.1 per cent in 2030.
“Even though competitors’ market share is still lower than Thailand, it is likely to start surging,” the research house said.
The report pointed out that Malaysia’s market share has been expanding since 2016, as its Musang King variety is becoming increasingly popular. It said Chinese consumers are starting to develop a taste for this variety even though it is four times more expensive than Thai durian.
It added that China opening its durian market to Vietnam will also create a dent in Thailand’s market share.
“Competition will become intense when it comes to pricing,” Krungthai Compass warned.
However, it said China’s success in cultivating durian should not have a short-term impact on Thailand’s export because the harvests are not big enough.
It expects China to harvest 150 to 250 tonnes of the Musang King and Black Thorn varieties this month, accounting for only 0.3 per cent of Thailand’s durian export.
However, the report said, China’s productivity is expected to rise by up to 20 per cent annually between 2024 and 2030.
Krungthai Compass concluded its report by advising exporters to follow the D-U-R-I-A-N principles to boost their competitiveness. The principle is:
Develop: Apply smart agriculture, innovative packaging and product development to meet demand.
Unique: Promote and build awareness of Thai durian's unique taste via online and offline channels.
Research: Research and develop new durian varieties that are of high quality and resistant to disease.
Improve: Improve the fruit to become a high-value product and promote sales through e-commerce platforms.
Assurance: Boost confidence among consumers throughout the durian supply chain.
New market: Expand exports to other potential markets such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and the US, to avoid reliance on China alone.
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