Neutral ENSO phase brings uncertain weather and storm risks
The La Niña phenomenon, which emerged earlier this year, dissipated rapidly within three months. The world is now in a neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
La Niña, the opposite of the El Niño phenomenon, is characterised by irregular and unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which in turn affect global weather patterns.
Meteorologists are closely monitoring both La Niña and El Niño events, as these phenomena tend to influence global weather in relatively consistent and predictable ways.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this recent La Niña episode occurred later than usual—only the second time in 75 years that such a delay has been recorded (the first being in 2008–2009).
The early dissipation of La Niña has surprised forecasters. Nevertheless, they remain confident that the atmosphere will not undergo dramatic shifts, as residual effects from La Niña are expected to persist—although the duration of this influence remains uncertain.
A neutral phase refers to conditions that are neither warm enough to be classified as El Niño nor cool enough to be considered La Niña. This typically follows the conclusion of either phenomenon.
NOAA anticipates that these neutral conditions could persist throughout 2025, with a peak expected between mid-August and mid-October—coinciding with the storm season.
Forecasters caution that it is still too early to predict the severity of this year’s storms. Neutral conditions are notably more difficult to forecast than either El Niño or La Niña phases. Other contributing factors, such as ocean heat content and global warming driven by fossil fuel combustion, must also be taken into account, as they have significantly slowed oceanic cooling.
At present, the oceans are absorbing more than 90% of the excess heat, driving global sea temperatures to record highs in 2023–2024.
In 2024, El Niño briefly transitioned into a neutral phase before the US experienced one of its more intense hurricane seasons, with 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes. This pattern bears a striking resemblance to current conditions, prompting some experts to anticipate a similarly active storm season this year.
Meanwhile, global temperatures continue to rise, with more frequent and severe heatwaves attributed to climate change. As a result, weather patterns are becoming increasingly hot and dry compared to previous decades.
