United States weighs risk of retaliation from North Korea

The United States is building up pressure on North Korea over its nuclear weapon and missile development. Incorporating analyses by specialists including Yoji Koda, a former vice admiral and former commander in chief of the Maritime Self-Defence Force fleet, we explored the possible scenarios that could occur if the United States takes military action.

Swift air campaign
 “All options are on the table,” said US President Donald Trump, which would include a military campaign. How would that unfold? Koda’s prediction is as follows.
The United States would amass a formidable strike force near the Korean Peninsula, likely armed with 500 to 600 cruise missiles carried by at least one specially fitted Ohio-class submarine (154 Tomahawk missiles), two general-purpose subs (10 Tomahawks each), and around 10 destroyers or cruisers (20 to 30 Tomahawks each. The United States could deploy a fleet of 30 strategic bombers – B-52s, B-1s and B-2s – from Guam, providing a strike capacity of around 200 air-to-ground cruise missiles.
US Air Force fighter squads would also be a critical element, with approximately 100 F-16s stationed in two squadrons at Osan Air Base south of Seoul, and another 50 at in Aomori Prefecture, Japan. These forces would be joined by the 90 aircraft on board the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, including 48 FA-18 Super Hornets. The US Marine Corps’ Iwakuni Air Station, due to its close location to the Korean Peninsula, could also be a base for airstrikes.
The offensive would likely start before dawn with a massive barrage of cruise missiles targeting the biggest threats: North Korean artillery within range of Seoul; ballistic missile squadrons capable of striking South Korea and Japan; and counter-air defences. Once day breaks, a second wave consisting of F-16, FA-18, and strategic bomber aircraft will engage the remaining North Korean forces one by one. This is when nuclear facilities, crucial to strategy but a secondary threat in combat, will be targeted.
Koda predicts that, “Once the United States decides to wage war, they will likely advance the aircraft carrier deep into the Yellow Sea, just south of the Liaodong Peninsula, to gain an advantageous position from which to strike northern North Korea.”
The war would be over in several days. The key to US success would be how much damage could be done to North Korea’s retaliatory capacity in the initial stages.

Provocation risks confrontation
The greatest issue would be North Korean retaliation, with South Korean and American casualties in South Korea probably reaching the tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands. Ballistic missiles could also cause damage in Japan. The dominant view within the Japanese government is that it is impossible to see the United States pre-emptively attack the North, at this stage.
When the US last considered bombing North Korea, in 1994 over the North Korean nuclear crisis, the plan was scrapped mainly due to South Korean resistance.
It would be extremely difficult to destroy all of the many mobile ballistic missile launch pads that have South Korea and Japan within range, Koda said: “The priority for the United States is protecting Seoul from a North Korean attack. Unless it has a clear and confident vision, it should not be able to pre-emptively strike.”
Justification for a pre-emptive attack would also be necessary.
Former vice admiral Toshiyuki Ito, professor at Tokyo’s Kanazawa Institute of Technology, points out that, “Even if North Korea dared conduct its sixth nuclear test, an attack on that basis would attract international blame on the United States as a violator of international law.” He added: “The United States, to justify its cause, could claim that North Korea’s nuclear tests are in violation of the Korean Armistice Agreement. It is a dubious claim, but Donald Trump could attempt to push through with it.”
Deployment of the Carl Vinson is more likely intimidation aimed at stopping North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile development. The US is also heightening pressure on China, which has strong influence over North Korea, to cooperate in sanctioning Pyongyang’s actions.
Yet with uncertainty regarding the actions of both the United States and North Korea, any provocation could potentially trigger military confrontation.
Koda concluded on an unsettling note. “The worst scenario would be that North Korea, under the current Kim Jong-un regime, possesses nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland. It is hard to predict what the Trump administration would do to prevent this.”