The choice before Colombia - Yes to peace or Yes to war

In the continuing season of referendums, after Britain and Thailand, the action moves to South America. On October 2, the people of Colombia will vote to accept or reject a peace accord the government has signed with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), to end a war that has wracked the country for more than five decades. Grim statistics testify to the immensity of the conflict – more than 230,000 killed including thousands of security forces, some 45,000 missing and almost 6 million displaced. “Eighty per cent of those who died were civilians,” the government’s chief peace negotiator revealed recently. 

Colombia has long flirted with disaster. For most of the 1940s and 1950s, a political standoff between the Conservatives and Liberals descended into a civil war that took more than 200,000 lives. That was followed by a proclivity for an assortment of communist ideologies – the Marxist FARC rebels taking inspiration from the Soviet Union, the People’s Liberation Army following the path of Mao’s China and the National Liberation Army espousing the ideology of Castro’s Cuba – all of them embracing the path of violence. The infamous drug cartels piled on the misery and Colombia constantly teetered on the brink of becoming a failed state.

“From the time I was five years old, Colombia has never been free from violence,” says Andelfo Garcia, Colombia’s Ambassador to Thailand. “First, there was the struggle between the Conservatives and Liberals and then between the government and leftist guerrillas. The country has not known peace.” 

“After so many years of fighting, this is one of our best opportunities to put the past behind,” Garcia says of the peace deal with FARC, the biggest of the rebel groups, which at one time almost became a parallel army with almost 20,000 fighters. 

In pushing for peace in his second and final term as president, Juan Manuel Santos is pursuing a legacy similar to that of the late Israeli premier Yitzhak Rabin. Both Santos and Rabin were relentless foes of the rebels when they served as defence ministers. Rabin was famous for his “iron fist” policy in cracking down on the Palestinians during the intifada in the late 1980s, while it was during Santos’s stint as defence minister that the top leadership of FARC was decimated, leaving the leftist guerrillas staring at an uncertain future. But once they took on the mantle of government, both Rabin and Santos were statesmanlike enough to pursue peace with the enemy. Rabin’s ambitious journey was cut short by an assassin. But Santos’s legacy will be decided by the people. The president did not need to seek a referendum vote to push through his peace plan, but by letting the people have the decisive say, he ensures they will be the architects of their destiny.

Four years of clandestine talks in Havana with the existing FARC leadership have led to a whopping 297-page document. “It’s probably the world’s most elaborate peace plan,” says Garcia. “It covers key areas – agrarian reform, political participation, surrender of weapons, elimination of drugs, justice – and goes into elaborate detail. There is not much scope for interpretation.”

It is probably a tribute to Santos’s political savvy that he tapped the opportunity when he saw one, and went the extra mile to ensure the process didn’t fall short. “Every Colombian president has made efforts to reach a peace deal with the FARC. But the guerrillas were not keen because they thought they could achieve more through an armed conflict,” says Garcia.

Things changed when Santos as defence minister in the government of President Alvaro Uribe went hard after the guerrillas. “They changed the military strategy. It was based more on intelligence inputs and they went after the FARC top leadership instead of getting bogged down fighting foot soldiers in the jungles,” says Garcia.

Embarking on the peace process was not easy with a group like FARC, which has been declared a terrorist organisation by the US and Europe. Amnesty is generally a key aspect in every peace accord but the International Criminal Court prohibits amnesty for war criminals. The Santos government has brought lots of creativity to the peace process. 

“Taking inspiration from the peace process in South Africa and Northern Ireland, the negotiators also ensured some of the problems faced in the post-peace period in former embattled states like El Salvador did not recur,” says Garcia. 

Experts, however, believe the challenges for the peace accord – should it pass the referendum – lie in the danger of the disarmed guerrillas being lured by drug cartels. 

In keeping with the stipulations of the ICC, Colombia will set up a transitional tribunal to deal with those who confess to their crimes. Sentencing would not mean jail time but being confined to a protected area for up to eight years. Giving the negotiations a humane dimension was the move to get victims on either side to meet across the table. “Victims on both sides were chosen independently, not by the government. This played a big role in developing trust, because victims on both sides wanted to move on,” says Garcia.

One reason the peace process made progress was support from the defence forces.

“One of our most decorated generals, General Javier, Flores was at the negotiating table with the rebels,” says Garcia. Flores had commanded the operation that led to the killing of FARC’s No 2 leader Mono Jojoy. Recently a photo was released of the wife of FARC founder Manuel Marulanda shaking hands with an army commander. “It was a powerful photo to show how sentiments have changed between the once bitter enemies,” says Garcia.

The vote threshold for the referendum has been set at 13 per cent of the electorate, which means a minimum of 4.4 million voters must endorse the deal.

The agreement requires the guerrillas to lay down arms and dismantle cocaine production, in exchange for a foothold in Congress. They are guaranteed a minimum of five seats in the House of Representatives and five in the Senate, even if they don’t win the elections.

Colombia’s eyes are now set on the huge economic dividend that could follow. 

“According to projections, GDP growth could surge by two percentage points and foreign direct investment could surge threefold, from US$12 billion currently to $36 billion. Besides, an additional 7 million hectares of agricultural land could become productive,” Garcia says.

Santos is hampered by low popularity ratings, which languish in the 20s. He has undoubtedly been hurt by the slump in oil prices and the overall sluggish global economy. “This is a brave move by him and I’m sure the people will be able to separate the peace deal from other issues,” says Garcia, sounding a note of optimism while conceding that after Britain voted to leave the EU anything was possible. Once on the same side of the aisle, former president Uribe – whose father was killed by FARC – is emerging as the biggest opponent of the deal. Uribe, now a popular senator, believes too many concessions have been made to the guerrillas. 

It was undoubtedly smart of the government to make the peace deal with FARC a special agreement under Article 3 of the Geneva Convention. “This makes the agreement binding on successive governments, protecting it from subsequent amendments,” says Garcia.

The greatest impediment to the peace plan is the hatred and distrust of the FARC. 

“The real question is whether our people can surmount their feelings and vote with pragmatism. I’m optimistic that despite all their reservations, they’ll back the peace process,” says Garcia.

A minute after a historic ceasefire took effect, President Santos tweeted: “This August 29, a new phase of history begins for Colombia. We silenced the guns. The war with FARC is over.”

Santos and the leader of FARC, Timoleon Jimenez, are expected to sign the final agreement on September 26. 

Beyond all the doubts and debates, as Colombian voters stare at the simple referendum question, “Do you support the final accord to end the conflict and build a stable and lasting peace?” they will have to decide between two Yes’s: A yes to the peace process or a yes to the continuation of war.