Trump keeps diplomatic world guessing
Considering his unpredictability, Thailand would do well to have a contingency plan if the republican becomes the president
Should Thailand start preparing for a Donald Trump presidency? He has steamrolled his way towards a potentially explosive Republican nomination for the United States’ presidential race. Most, if not all, analysts are writing him off if he is up against Democrat Hillary Clinton, but then again, the pundits have all been utterly wrong about him before. They considered him some kind of a joke just a year or so ago, and even now, America’s Democrats may be praying that he is finally the Republican nominee because he could scare a large section of the electorate into voting for Clinton. Yet, the man may have more surprises in store.
America’s foreign policies can go haywire if he becomes the next US president. Even the American media are screaming “What’s Next?”
The maverick billionaire-turned-politician has been shooting his mouth off with no regard for diplomatic or political correctness, some of them being: Mexico is sending “rapists” across the border; there should be a ban on non-American Muslims allowed into the US; Iran must be stopped at all costs, but he also wants to trade with it. There have also been flip-flops on a number of foreign policies.
Thailand does not appear to be on Trump’s agenda because, for all his controversial or sometimes shocking diplomatic rants, his possible presidency would likely be “inward looking”. He has been trying to appeal to average Americans who are disillusioned with conventional politicians. The average American does not bother with how the White House should treat foreign regimes or how “American political models” should be adopted or embraced by other countries.
Analysts, who are re-evaluating Trump after failing to take him seriously only months ago, are saying that his unconventional style is a breath of fresh air. Whether he’s an absolute horror of a human being or a shameless, pathological liar, as both Republican and Democrat rivals describe him, Trump has greatly appealed to Americans tired of oratory that is not matched by action. Just a few days ago, he took another huge stride towards the Republican nomination by winning another key primary battle, in Indiana, forcing his nearest competitor, Senator Ted Cruz, to accept defeat and bow out.
If Trump wins the presidency and sticks to building on that appeal, the world may see a different America. Despite seemingly portraying himself as an international cowboy, it is likely he will be more preoccupied with pressing domestic issues. If the status quo prevails, meaning Trump is forced to be actively “outward looking”, he has shown he is capable of making a U-turn, in which case the “busybody” that is the United States may get even busier.
The Democratic White House has been actively asserting itself in Thai political affairs. It’s also clear which side of the Thai divide America’s ruling elites are on, effectively alienating the United States from a big section of the Thai population. Trump, meanwhile, has spared Thailand’s political turbulence in his no-holds-barred public comments. Some say that’s good news. Others wonder if he can actually differentiate Thailand from Taiwan.
Trump is unpredictable on foreign affairs. And that is all the more reason for Thai policymakers to start drawing up a Trump contingency plan. After all, many times it is easier to deal with predictability than waywardness. Many other countries must be thinking along the same lines. Who would they rather face – a predictable, well-known cowboy, or a little-known man with a gun whose temperament is being questioned by friends and foes alike?
