Counting the eggs in the referendum basket

Let’s start with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. The referendum is tied to his much-maligned pledge to return Thailand where it was, in terms of national harmony, and where it should be, when it comes to political honesty and integrity. If the charter draft is rejected, his proclaimed agenda will amount to nothing. He could go ahead and unilaterally install any new charter he deems fit, but that would be nothing short of self-mockery and potentially suicide for his career in power.

The Pheu Thai Party eggs are pretty much the same as their rival’s. On the surface, Pheu Thai and the Democrat Party should want voters to kill the charter draft. But as Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has bitterly suggested, rejecting it may carry a big price. Reading between the lines, Abhisit does not trust Prayut to come up with a better charter if this draft is rejected.

Simply put, both Pheu Thai and the Democrats are ambivalent about having eggs in the basket. They don’t want this “undemocratic draft” to do well, but they know that this deal could be as good as it gets. If the draft passes a general election next year is guaranteed, which is better than nothing; if it falls God only knows what will happen.

Both parties have enough popular support to deliver a groundswell of “No” votes if they join hands. But will they? Firstly, even a joint campaign wouldn’t ensure victory. Secondly, the two camps have few incentives in common.

Pheu Thai can play-act its way through all this. The party can project itself as a “pro-democracy” force and campaign against the draft, but secretly hope it will pass. Flexing its power at a general election is key for Pheu Thai, and a “yes” to the charter would deliver an election by the middle of next year. “Let’s see what they can do to us if we score another landslide victory” would be the logical thinking within Pheu Thai ranks at the moment.

The August 7 referendum is not the endgame for Pheu Thai. A fresh election would fulfil that role. Things get a little ironic and paradoxical when we consider this. If Prayut is genuinely “dictatorial”, he will not want the draft to pass the referendum. He will want it to be turned down, accepting the temporary loss of face in exchange for flexibility in future maneuvering. Pheu Thai, meanwhile, should want the “undemocratic” draft constitution to pass for the opportunity it gives of the swiftest possible return to power.

The Democrats, meanwhile, don’t want to be peripheral for much longer. Over the past few years, the military-Pheu Thai showdown has reduced Thailand’s oldest political party to a supporting act. Ask football players to choose between a very muddy pitch and not playing football at all, and they will choose the former. The Democrats are the same.

They may end up in opposition again after the next election. But the Democrats will judge that muddy pitch better than none at all. So, what should the Democrats do now after Abhisit’s ambiguous tone towards the charter draft? The party might just ask its supporters to vote with their consciences. Lukewarm criticism of the draft may also be expected.

Things are getting increasingly complicated and subtle, aren’t they? And the “additional question” that voters are required to answer on referendum day doesn’t make life any easier. In addition to whether they accept the charter draft or not, voters will have to say if they want an appointed Senate to join the elected House of Representatives in selecting the next prime minister. If the majority says “Yes”, the Senate will basically become the biggest political party, adding to the controversy already embedded in the charter draft.

To some, the additional question is more problematic than the draft itself. Pheu Thai, for example, might well want the draft to pass so an election can be called as early as possible, but this camp won’t accept the Senate’s added power under any circumstances.

As we can see, the referendum is one big basket crammed with eggs of various sizes and natures. Some of the eggs didn’t want to be there. Others don’t like those put in next to them. But they are in the same basket all the same, which makes the container extremely intriguing. Needless to say, “Handle with Care” should be its one and only label.