2016: Make-or-break year for ‘Mr Good Guy’

In fact, you don’t have to be a first-class astrologer or a rocket scientist to predict that things will get worse before they get better this year, whether you are talking about economics, politics or social issues.

Perhaps, Premier Prayut had heard all the negative forecasts before the end of the year. That’s why he declared in his New Year’s address – more or less his New Year’s Resolution – that he will be a “good guy” in the new year.

What he meant was that he would talk less in public and would reduce the intensity and frequency of his verbal spats with reporters. My own suspicion is that the premier was in fact pre-empting all the possible disasters that could befall his government in the new year by promising to build alliances rather than to alienate people with stinging remarks against his critics.

To say that 2016 will be a challenging year for him would be an understatement.

Some of the major issues that threaten to undermine his status come in the form of big questions such as:

Will he make a major Cabinet reshuffle, this time to shake up ministers in the defence and security portfolios, and deflate criticism about suspicious activities in some of the national projects, including the Rajabhakti Park investigation?

Will the Constitution draft being finalised by a committee headed by Meechai Ruchupan open up new rifts between the powers-that-be and the various political parties? And if it’s rammed through the Cabinet, will the charter be approved by the public in the upcoming referendum?

How will Prayut react to whatever decisions are made by the judicial branch on charges against former premier Yingluck Shinawatra over the rice pledging scheme, which has one way or the other been seen a political issue pitting Prayut against former premier Thanksin Shinawatra?

If these aren’t enough headaches, there will be recurring problems that will spill over from last year: The International Civil Aviation Organisation’s continuing probe into Thailand’s air safety standards, the European Union’s investigation into illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing activities, and the US State Department’s annual rating of Thailand’s status on the question of human trafficking.

Premier Prayut will also have to closely monitor the prices of agricultural commodities, which have been depressed, pushing down Thai farmers’ income and sparking widespread calls from around the country for government intervention.

Rice farmers and rubber plantation owners have been the most vocal in demanding government assistance to prop up prices. But any attempt at a populist scheme could be disastrous, not only financially but also politically.

After all, the premier has made it his public stand to accuse the previous government’s rice pledging scheme (buying up paddy from farmers at a guaranteed price of Bt15,000 per kwian) of having incurred no less than Bt500,000 million loss at taxpayers’ expense. He won’t be in a position to offer farmers a relief plan on a similar scale or formula.

To make a bad situation even worse, nature could wreak havoc on the country’s agricultural landscape this year: If 2015 saw the emergence of a serious drought that disrupted production of the nation’s main farm commodities, the full and severe impact will be felt this year.

No doubt, if farmers start marching into Bangkok seeking help, politics will start rumbling – and General Prayut, ever mindful of the need to consolidate his political base before handing over power to the electoral process in accordance with his “road map”, will also have to ensure unity in his own backyard, the top brass.

How then, with all the overwhelming issues of 2016, will there be sufficient time, attention or real interest in embarking upon the two most important missions – reform and reconciliation – which were, after all, the only excuse for the May 22, 2014 coup.