Charter change debate takes on an eerie calm

The charter debate over the past few days has been oddly nonchalant. Pessimists still far outnumber optimists, though. The relatively non-confrontational style of government MPs was cynically attributed to the fact that the ruling camp would eventually prevail in the final voting anyway. And after the fierce showdown in earlier rounds, there was a strong need for the government side to show the Thai public that “reconciliation” steps do not necessarily have to navigate a path strewn with landmines.

Every opinion poll has shown the Thai public’s great anxiety over the ongoing constitutional reform. Even newspapers known to be sympathetic to the government have cautioned against a rush to implement so-called reconciliatory measures. Thaksin Shinawatra, around whom constitutional and legal complications have been revolving, fuelled national strife with high-profile reunions with Thai supporters during the Songkran festival. He taunted political rivals with an adaptation of The Beatles’ song “Let it Be”. The People’s Alliance for Democracy, an arch-enemy of Thaksin, has launched a legal campaign in a bid to halt the planned writing of a new Constitution.

After all that, the charter debate could not be seen as rubbing salt into the country’s wounds. Government MPs have toned down their aggression considerably over the past few days of debate. This left the opposition Democrats with little to do. They had thrived on the government side’s angry reaction in earlier rounds, but lately it has been more or less like shadow boxing. The debate over the past few days was such a non-event that a couple of nude pictures that showed up in the wrong place at the wrong time managed to steal many front-page headlines.

One can be forgiven for assuming that this is just the calm before the storm. The government is having its way in most crucial points as far as constitutional reform is concerned. The composition of the Constitution Drafting Assembly, an issue that the Democrats and the Pheu Thai Party had been expected to lock horns over, was concluded in the government’s favour without much of a fuss. Parliament voted to set up a compact CDA, allowing each province to be represented by just one drafter. The government has also fulfilled its all-important need to pass the charter amendment bill within this extended parliamentary term in order to kick-start the process of writing a new charter as soon as possible.

If there is any concession on the government’s part, it may be a signal that the Yingluck administration would no longer try to rush through an amnesty law. An amnesty programme, according to Pheu Thai MP Korkaew Pikulthong, who met Thaksin in Cambodia during Songkran, will wait for the new charter first. This means Thailand will be spared potential political turmoil this year at least.

The immediate political outlook becomes somewhat clearer. 

The charter amendment bill will pass through Parliament in its current extended term, after which it will take more than two months to form the CDA. It remains to be seen how much time the drafters will have to write a new Constitution, but Parliament is expected to settle for six to eight months. After the draft of the new charter is completed, a waiting period of around two months will take effect before the draft goes through a national referendum. The whole process is expected to take about a year, give or take a few weeks.

This brings us back to the core issue that no perceived “calm” can hide. The drafters will have to deal with Article 309 of the current charter by either amending it or completely avoiding it. The article provides protection for legal consequences of the 2006 coup including investigations into Thaksin’s alleged corruption. No matter what decision is taken by the drafters, one half of Thailand won’t be happy. To what extent their dissatisfaction will affect the fragile political landscape of Thailand, nobody seems to know.