US tariffs could trigger global recession, warns Chinese ambassador

He explained that international trade is founded on the principles of resource distribution and the comparative advantages of each country, with the core being voluntary and mutually beneficial exchange.

American companies choose Thailand as a base for producing hard disks, later re-exporting them to the US, because Thailand benefits from lower production costs, he said.

Referring to the 36% reciprocal tariff imposed by the US on Thai goods — justified on the grounds of Thailand’s trade surplus — Han pointed out that the US itself recorded a services trade surplus of US$295.2 billion with its global partners in 2024. He argued that, by the same standard, this could be deemed unfair to America's trading partners worldwide.

“The division of labour and free trade among nations are the foundations of global economic development,” Han stated.

He emphasised that the US has historically been the largest beneficiary of the global trading system, with its consumers enjoying high-quality products at affordable prices from across the world. In addition, the US holds dominant positions in finance, technology and other high-value-added sectors.

Han cited WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who once wrote that the US is the greatest winner in global trade. He argued that Washington’s push for reciprocal tariffs is not a matter of justice but an exercise of power for economic self-interest.

“If every nation were to adopt an ‘our country first’ approach and rely on its dominant position, the world would regress into a lawless era. Small and weaker countries would become victims, and international rules would be severely undermined,” he pointed out.

The ambassador accused the US of igniting the tariff war, thereby disrupting global supply chains and placing the global economy at risk of recession.

He added that Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has urged ASEAN nations to closely monitor the situation, while Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned that the US is steering the world into a new era of arbitrary power.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has publicly stated that the US’s reciprocal tariff measures could have catastrophic consequences for the global economy and significantly harm consumer interests. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described the policy as a “tragedy for global trade”, Han noted.

On how to respond to these tariffs, the ambassador said that the essence of China–US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit. The two nations are key trading partners in both goods and services, as well as in mutual investment.

“Maintaining China–US economic and trade relations is essential for global economic stability,” he said. “When China and the US cooperate, both sides gain; when they clash, both suffer. There are no winners in a trade war, and protectionism is not the solution.”

He added that the growth of both China and the US should be seen as opportunities for each other, not threats.

Han affirmed that China does not seek a tariff war with the US. However, he said China has implemented strong countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and uphold the global free trade order, as well as principles of justice and fairness.

He warned that the US, as the initiator of the trade war, will ultimately bear the consequences, beginning with its own consumers. He referenced research from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), which shows that more than 90% of tariff costs are passed on to importers, downstream businesses and consumers in the US.

“China has an old saying: ‘When you lift a rock, it falls on your own feet.’ We believe that the US’s misuse of tariffs will not only face international opposition but also be challenged by the wisdom of the American people,” he said.

Han expressed confidence that China and Thailand can sustain their trade partnership amid global volatility. He urged both countries to collaborate in accordance with the principles of free trade, openness and mutual benefit.

“At the same time, we must protect the global trading system, utilise platforms such as China–ASEAN cooperation mechanisms and the WTO, and call on all nations to uphold inclusiveness, openness and peaceful coexistence,” he said.

He reaffirmed China’s commitment to sharing development opportunities with the world, including Thailand.

“China has a population of 1.4 billion and a consumer market approaching US$7 trillion. We welcome more high-quality products from Thailand to enter the Chinese market,” he said.

He also pledged that Chinese authorities would support local governments, industry associations, and businesses from both countries in building closer ties.

Chinese firms in Thailand would be encouraged to partner with Thai SMEs to strengthen industrial supply chains and support Thailand’s digital and green economy transformation, he added.

“China stands ready to join hands with Thailand to establish a model of mutually beneficial economic and trade cooperation, strengthen stability in uncertain global conditions, and boost global confidence in economic growth,” he concluded.