Who might succeed Fumio Kishida as Japan’s prime minister?

The key contest is for party president, with the vote likely to take place in the latter half of September.

As the LDP is Japan’s ruling party, its president is by default the Japanese prime minister.

First off the blocks is former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, 67, who declared his intention to run if he secures the requisite endorsement from 20 lawmakers to qualify as a candidate.

Ishiba, who is among six lawmakers on a multi-party visit to Taiwan, told reporters in Taipei that he wanted to “fulfil his responsibilities if the circumstances are right”.

While the 12-term parliamentarian regularly tops media polls asking people for their preferred choice of PM, he is seen as a renegade figure within the LDP and could struggle to win votes. He has already contested – and lost – four previous LDP elections.

Also popular with the public is the telegenic, reform-minded former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, who led the country from 2001 to 2006.

Sota Kato, a former bureaucrat now with The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research think-tank, told The Straits Times that LDP politicians will be mindful that national elections for both chambers of the Diet are imminent when making their choice.

“They will probably want to choose someone who can be the ‘face of the election’,” he said, adding that he expects a snap election to be called soon after the vote for the party’s president to maximise the honeymoon phase that a newly elected leader tends to enjoy. The Lower House must be dissolved by October 2025.

Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa’s stock has been steadily rising within the LDP and among the public, and the momentum might lead to the election of Japan’s first woman prime minister come September.

Kamikawa, 71, has been praised by LDP power broker Taro Aso, and is also a member of Mr Kishida’s faction.

Another female politician to watch is the hawkish Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, 63. A disciple of the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, she has said that she will carry his torch and espouse his policy ideas if elected.

Others who have made no secret of their PM ambitions include LDP secretary-general Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, who has a strained relationship with Kishida and has in recent weeks hinted at a run for the party presidency.

Digital Minister Taro Kono, 61, will likely throw his hat into the ring. He was second to Mr Kishida in the last LDP race in 2021, but has lost popularity among the public after the roll-out of the My Number national digital identity card ran into problems such as mistaken identities and a spate of technical glitches.

Mid-ranked and younger LDP members are coalescing behind former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, a four-term lawmaker who they believe is not tainted by the fallout of the party’s scandals.

While he did not directly reveal his plans for the upcoming polls during a television interview in July, he said: “I’m making efforts to take the helm of the country someday.”