Overhaul economic team, shift key policies to save Pheu Thai

The official reason given was to enable the country to move forward without political deadlock. However, behind the scenes, it was linked to a so-called “super deal” that allowed the “big boss,” Thaksin Shinawatra, to return to Thailand without spending even a single day in prison.

"Thaksin and Pheu Thai" went all in to form Srettha Thavisin's government, paving the way for the eventual rise of Paetongtarn Shinawatra's administration — despite knowing full well it would cost them support from their "Red Shirt" fan base. Yet, they were willing to trade ideology for power.

In the 2023 general election, the former Move Forward Party outperformed Pheu Thai due to its clear political stance — “With us, there’s no Uncle” — a stark contrast to Pheu Thai, which was hesitant to clarify whether it would join hands with the "Uncles' camp." This ambiguity led to a political loss to the "Orange warriors" of the Move Forward Party.

After the political realignment, Thaksin and Pheu Thai were fully aware of the inevitable impact on their support base. As a result, they sought a turning point to rebuild momentum and regain the popularity they once enjoyed.

Their hope to restore public support now centres on economic revival, capitalising on the success of past administrations — from Thai Rak Thai to People Power and Pheu Thai — which had delivered better livelihoods and prosperity for the people.

However, nearly two years have passed since the Pheu Thai-led government took office, first under Prime Minister Srettha and now with Prime Minister Paetongtarn — the economic situation has entered a downward trend. Despite some external factors helping to cushion the blow, it must be acknowledged that the Pheu Thai government has not responded effectively.

Crucially, the government's flagship policies, in which Thaksin and Pheu Thai had placed high hopes, have become mired in political traps, preventing them from being fully implemented.

The 10,000-baht digital wallet policy has faced strong resistance from conservative networks, forcing the government to revise and downsize the budget. Instead of a nationwide rollout, the project was broken into phases. Even though two phases have already been launched, they have failed to significantly stimulate the economy.

The policy to establish entertainment complexes is still in the legislative drafting stage but has encountered pushback from both coalition parties and conservative networks, prompting a delay in its parliamentary deliberation.

The Land Bridge project, which aims to connect the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea via port infrastructure, is currently in the public consultation stage before the drafting of legislation. However, it too appears likely to face opposition from coalition parties and conservative groups once again.

With the three flagship policies unable to proceed as planned, Pheu Thai's mission to restore its image, which has been stuck in a rut for the past two years, remains in negative political territory. With just two years left in its term, the party must now accelerate and deploy every possible strategy to regain public trust.

In the past two months, Thaksin has reemerged, joining closed-door strategy meetings. These gatherings, held at the Shinawatra Building and Phitsanulok Mansion (the official residence of the Prime Minister of Thailand ), brought together strategists, economists, and thinkers to chart a new path forward for Pheu Thai.

Reportedly, Thaksin is seeking to reset the game. After the flagship policies stalled, there’s now a shift toward short-term policies aimed at stimulating the economy and boosting approval ratings, playing to the party’s traditional strengths.

Most recently, efforts are underway to form new economic and social policy teams, focusing on initiatives such as household debt relief, farmer debt restructuring, combating the drug problem, and preparing to handle the impact of the US-China trade war.

Thaksin has declared, both in public and behind closed doors, that tackling household debt is now a top priority. He has proposed a policy to purchase and restructure debt, assigning this as a key task for the new economic team to study. If successful, such a policy could significantly boost overall consumption.

There are reports that Thaksin wants to reshuffle the Cabinet, seeking to bring in top talents whom he has personally approached. Rather than allocating quotas to political factions, he aims to appoint capable professionals — people with fresh ideas and a clear approach to delivering results.

The plan includes dismantling the current economic Cabinet team and installing a new one to take charge — a high-stakes move that could represent the last chance to rescue Pheu Thai's popularity.

Key economic ministries under Pheu Thai's supervision are likely to see changes include:

Ministry of Finance

Ministry of Commerce

Ministry of Transport

Ministry of Tourism and Sports

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

It’s no surprise that rumours have surfaced about inviting a “banking executive” to lead the Finance Ministry — possibly replacing Pichai Chunhavajira, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister. However, the Prime Minister is reportedly fond of Pichai’s performance, so the question remains: Will father and daughter be able to reach an agreement?

The fate of Pichai Naripthaphan, Minister of Commerce, is also uncertain. He previously faced a grilling from MPs within his own party, so he now faces an uphill battle to retain his seat.

Meanwhile, Thaksin may take an aggressive approach by fast-tracking an anti-drug policy, a campaign he personally pledged to pursue. The plan may involve setting up a dedicated centre for drug suppression, with operations entrusted to professional, capable figures to carry out the mission.

All of this reflects an urgent attempt to turn the tide after the government's flagship policies stalled. It remains to be seen whether this crisis can be turned into an opportunity, with short-term policies igniting momentum to revive Pheu Thai’s popularity in time for the 2027 general election.