Spectre of Thaksin hangs over no-confidence debate

The no-confidence debate targeting Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her government, scheduled for March 24, appears to be evolving into a political game to deceive the public.

Signs from Parliament suggest frantic political dealmaking is underway to engineer the outcome.

House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha has used his authority to send a demand to the opposition leader: exclude Thaksin Shinawatra, de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, from the censure motion or it will not be included in the parliamentary agenda.

Wan Noor justified this move by citing parliamentary practice, claiming that no outside figure had ever been included in a no-confidence motion. Targeting an outsider could expose the Speaker to a defamation lawsuit, he added.  

Wan Noor’s explanation raised questions about whether Pheu Thai has put pressure on the Speaker.

The opposition plans to target not just the prime minister but also her father Thaksin, who is often called the "prime minister outside Parliament". 

The debate comes at a bad time for Pheu Thai, which is facing a serious challenge from its main coalition partner, Bhumjaithai. Trust within the government remains fragile.

With Thaksin firmly in the opposition’s crosshairs, the “secret war room” in Shinawatra Tower 3 will be monitoring the situation closely. Pheu Thai strategists are well aware that allowing the opposition to target Thaksin could trigger a chain reaction that escalates beyond control.

With both sides refusing to back down, Wan Noor and government whip Wisut Chainarun have handed the opposition an ultimatum: amend the motion or risk the no-confidence debate being delayed beyond this session, which ends on April 10.

However, the opposition People’s Party insists the motion is valid and has no defects, contrary to the Speaker’s claims.

The opposition Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) has raised suspicions about the withdrawal of Thaksin’s name from the motion.

“I’m not sure if the Speaker is overly concerned or deliberately delaying the no-confidence debate, pushing it past the session’s end, or if there’s a secret agreement. I urge the public to stay alert,” said Pol Gen Piya Tawichai, PPRP spokesperson.

The People’s Party is unlikely to unseat the government in the no-confidence vote, as coalition parties are expected to remain united in the face of a fractured opposition. Instead, it aims to weaken the popularity of Pheu Thai, its main rival in national elections scheduled for 2027.

All eyes will be on the final phase of this parliamentary session. Will the no-confidence go ahead as planned, or is it just another political manoeuvre to mislead the public? Only time will tell.