Thaksin’s campaign strategy: A legal tightrope?
The former PM’s role in PAO election campaigns has reignited debates over his influence on government policy and raised legal questions
As 2025 begins, Thaksin Shinawatra, former prime minister and father of incumbent PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, has taken on a prominent role in rallying support for Pheu Thai candidates at Provincial Administrative Organisation elections nationwide.
While Thaksin’s rallying style, developed since the Thai Rak Thai Party era in the late 1990s, resonates strongly with supporters, it raises legal concerns in the current political landscape. Thaksin, who was recently granted parole, is not a member of the ruling party, but serves merely as a “campaign assistant”.
The Election Commission (EC), however, is closely monitoring his activities, with chairman Itthiporn Boonpracong reminding all involved to comply with laws, prohibiting defamatory or deceptive speech.
Thaksin’s references to government policies during his speeches have drawn particular scrutiny. For example, during a rally in Chiang Rai on January 5, Thaksin advocated lowering electricity rates.
“This year, electricity rates must drop to the 3-baht range, ideally 3.50 baht, though 3.70 baht may be more realistic,” he said.
Two days later, at the year’s first Cabinet meeting, Paetongtarn announced plans to reduce electricity rates to that exact rate – 3.70 baht per unit.
Similarly, after Thaksin addressed call centre scams in the same speech, the government revealed plans to amend laws to combat online crimes and expedite victim reimbursements. Critics argue that such patterns suggest “Thaksin speaks, and the government acts”.
Thaksin had previously leveraged campaign platforms to spotlight government policies, such as raising the minimum wage and salaries, sparking speculation about possible Cabinet reshuffles to fulfil these promises.
Therefore, Thaksin's key speeches, closely monitored and documented by the EC, even prompting a strong "warning" that he is crossing the line, pose a significant risk of consequences on all fronts.
Precedents exist: In 2014, a Senate candidate was disqualified for five years over making promises deemed far beyond their authority, violating election laws against deceptive claims to win votes.
Former EC commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn has also criticised Thaksin’s activities, suggesting they may contravene Article 65 (5) of the Local Election Act, punishable by a jail term of between one and 10 years, and/or 20,000 to 200,000 baht in fines, along with 20 years disqualification from voting.
If Thaksin’s influence over ministers and the Cabinet is substantiated, then he could face charges under Articles 28 and 29 of the Organic Act on Political Parties, carrying severe penalties, including party dissolution.
The EC has reportedly collected evidence and warned Thaksin to stay within legal limits, placing him in a precarious position. As the “Red Camp” faces waning popularity and the “Orange Camp” gains momentum, Thaksin’s ability to navigate these legal and political challenges will be pivotal in shaping his strategy for rallying voter support.
