How Thaksin orchestrated Prawit’s defeat and political dominance

In 2024, Thailand’s political scene was dominated by Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister whose every move captured public attention. 

After 17 years in self-exile overseas, Thaksin made a highly publicised return to Thailand in August 2023. Though sentenced to eight years in prison, he never set foot in a jail cell, instead spending his detention in a VIP room in the Police General Hospital, citing deteriorating health. 

Thaksin remained in hospital “detention” long enough to qualify for a sentence reduction to one year, and was eventually granted a royal pardon on July 28. The clemency was granted as part of celebrations marking His Majesty’s 6th cycle birthday (72 years). 

A pivotal moment came when Srettha Thavisin, known for his tireless work ethic, was removed as prime minister by the Constitutional Court on August 14. The court ruled that Srettha had violated the Constitution and breached ethical standards by nominating former controversial lawyer Pichit Chuenban as a minister without portfolio. 

Pichit had been sentenced to six months in prison for contempt of court after attempting to bribe Supreme Court officials. 

Srettha’s dismissal opened the door for Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s daughter, to take over as Thailand’s 31st prime minister on August 16. 

Thaksin, meanwhile, has been a central figure of power, hosting coalition leaders at his residence to pave the way for Paetongtarn’s rise. He dismissed the meeting’s significance, jokingly referring to it as a gathering for instant noodles. 

Aware of the potential for external disruptions, including a possible resurgence of former deputy premier Prawit Wongsuwan, Thaksin acted decisively to consolidate power and avoid delays in positioning his daughter as prime minister. 

During the formation of Paetongtarn’s Cabinet, tensions emerged with the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), amid rumours that Thaksin sought to marginalise Prawit. 

Patcharawat Wongsuwan, Prawit's younger brother and former deputy PM and natural resources and environment minister in Srettha’s government, was removed from his post as expected. 

Simultaneously, internal divisions within the PPRP deepened. Tensions between Prawit and Thammanat Prompow’s faction escalated, culminating in a struggle for Cabinet positions in Paetongtarn’s government. These conflicts ultimately led to Prawit and the PPRP being relegated to the opposition bench. 

Once a powerful figure after the 2014 coup, Prawit saw his influence wane. His party was reduced from a dominant force to a minor one, stripped of executive power. The group of 20 MPs loyal to Thammanat, who clashed with Prawit, was expelled from the PPRP and permitted to join a new party. 

Prawit’s political standing was further undermined by allegations of impropriety involving the Phu Nup Dao land issue, implicating a prominent figure close to him and raising concerns over land misuse and questionable financial dealings. 

As key figures distanced themselves, Prawit’s influence continued to diminish, and there are growing indications that he may retreat from the political stage. 

Conversely, Thaksin’s influence is rising. He has openly derided the opposition leader People’s Party as ineffective, branding it a “party of the new generation” that excels at rhetoric but lacks results. He has also vowed to reclaim MPs who previously supported the “orange party” for Pheu Thai and has adopted a combative stance, threatening to settle scores with political opponents. 

Looking ahead, Thaksin’s role is expected to grow, particularly in shaping his daughter’s administration and strategising for the 2027 general election, to secure at least 200 parliamentary seats.

However, given Thailand’s volatile political environment, unexpected developments remain likely.