Pheu Thai vs People’s Party: A finale with no happy ending

Sunday’s election for Udon Thani Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chief ended in a win for the ruling Pheu Thai Party over the opposition People’s Party, after a fierce battle between the country’s two largest political forces.

Both sides wheeled out their big guns at campaign rallies and heated debates, led by Thaksin Shinawatra for Pheu Thai and Pita Limjaroenrat for the People’s Party.

Pheu Thai’s Sarawut Petchpanomphon won the election by nearly 60,000 votes, garnering 327,487 votes against 268,675 for People’s Party candidate Kanison Khurirang.

Dubbed a "proxy war" in the Northeast heartland of Thaksin’s red-shirt supporters, Sunday’s election was seen as a morale boost for Pheu Thai as it gears up for future battles. However, the People’s Party claimed that the relatively narrow margin of victory, in the tens of thousands rather than hundreds of thousands, signalled its continued popularity in Isaan and the desire for change among its people.

Pita, former leader of Move Forward, People’s Party’s predecessor, took to social media to rally supporters, describing the loss as a "defeat with progress" since the vote gap was smaller than the Move Forward Party's previous losses.

At the 2023 general election in Udon Thani, Pheu Thai won seven MP seats, Thai Sang Thai secured two, and Move Forward gained just one. In the party-list vote, Pheu Thai received 353,147 votes, while Move Forward trailed with 295,097 votes – a difference of 58,050.

The margin of less than 100,000 votes in the Udon Thani PAO chief election allowed Pita to assert that the People’s Party was making progress.

While local elections should ideally focus on candidates' ability to directly improve residents' lives, the last few weeks of campaigning in Udon Thani saw little discussion of actionable visions. Instead, it became a battleground between the red-bannered Pheu Thai and the orange People’s Party, increasingly bitter enemies after their rift following last year’s general election.

Even after Sarawut’s victory, tensions lingered. Sarawut announced plans to sue Chaitawat Tulathon, former Move Forward secretary-general, for alleging during a campaign rally that Sarawut’s wife had links with grey businesses. Whether this is a personal matter or a broader effort to safeguard reputations, it highlights escalating friction between the parties – especially since Thaksin’s campaign visit to Udon Thani deepened their divide.

Sarayut Jailak, Secretary-General of the People’s Party, and Pheu Thai firebrand Nattawut Saikua have openly admitted that there is no chance of their parties forming a coalition government in the current term.

The growing rift is set to extend to future elections, with fierce clashes between the two parties expected in upcoming contests. The People’s Party, in its latest move, has announced candidates for 12 PAO chief elections, signalling its intent to challenge Pheu Thai’s dominance and test its support ahead of the general election.

The next significant battleground will be the Ubon Ratchathani PAO election on December 22, prefaced by the People’s Party’s message thanking Udon Thani voters and inviting them to "meet again soon in Ubon".

Meanwhile, when Parliament reconvenes in December, the opposition is expected to table a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet. The debate is likely to focus on unresolved issues among coalition partners, with the main target being Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who is accused of failing to make good on her campaign promises.

Mekha Naiwayu