Expert urges Thailand to be prepared for drastic policy swings in US
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches its climax, political analysts are forecasting significant repercussions not only for the United States but also for Thailand’s economy and the geopolitical landscape.
The election could usher in sweeping changes, including a potential "tax wall" policy that could impose tariffs on Chinese products as high as 60%.
Panitan Wattanayagorn, a renowned Thai scholar on foreign affairs and security, cautioned that while the election primarily centres on individual candidates and societal concerns about migration, the economic implications could be profound.
"If Trump wins, he is likely to advance the idea of imposing 'tariff walls' to promote domestic employment, including a 10% tariff on all imports and a steep increase on goods from China by 60%," Panitan noted.
He added that Harris has not ruled out a tax increase but has provided no specific figures, suggesting both parties may continue their trade exclusion policies towards China.
Panitan stressed the need for Thailand to proactively engage in trade negotiations to mitigate potential fallout.
"Thailand will definitely be affected by any changes, especially as the first country to sign a trade treaty with neighbouring nations. We must collaborate with the private sector to prepare for the ripples this election may cause," he stated.
Environmental policies are also expected to shift dramatically, with Democrats advocating reduced use of fossil fuel and stronger climate action than their Republican counterparts.
"All countries trading with the US, especially Thailand and the 10 other nations with a trade surplus, would face challenges. The urgency to prepare for negotiations cannot be overstated," warned Panitan.
Should Trump regain the presidency, Panitan predicts that the US economy and global politics could face turbulence, particularly concerning military expenditure.
"Both Democrats and Republicans acknowledge that competition with China and Russia necessitates an increase in military spending, projected to rise from 3% to 5% of GDP," he explained.
Trump's approach towards NATO and Ukraine indicates a potential reduction in US financial support for these entities, as he focuses on bolstering the domestic economy, contrasting with the Democrats’ intention to maintain current levels of support.
Perspectives on Iran and the Middle East remain similarly aligned, as both parties regard Iran as a nuclear threat without a clear negotiation strategy to resolve regional crises.
