Political manoeuvring heats up as Thaksin breaks ties with Prawit
With the former PM making it clear that he wants Prawit out, Palang Pracharath strives to boost its numbers to remain in coalition
The political situation in the lead-up to August 14 is a high-stakes battle. The Move Forward Party awaits the Constitutional Court’s ruling on its dissolution, while Srettha Thavisin’s fate as Prime Minister hangs in the balance.
Both cases are in the hands of the Constitutional Court and will have significant consequences for many politicians, some of whom are secretly hoping to achieve their dream of leading the executive branch.
General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the Palang Pracharath Party, has been keeping a low profile in his “forest house” (the five provinces bordering the Forest Preservation Foundation) to avoid political heat, knowing that any strong movements could endanger the coalition status of his party.
The rulings on the Move Forward Party’s dissolution and Srettha’s qualifications are crucial for Prawit. If he wants to make a decisive move, now is the perfect time.
There are rumours that the recent round of golf played by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Deputy PM Anutin Charnvirakul and major political financiers in Khao Yai, Nakhon Ratchasima aimed to send a signal to Prawit that the three coalition parties are firmly united. And the “Khao Yai Declaration” included only Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, and United Thai Nation parties, leaving out Palang Pracharath.
Meanwhile, key figures from Palang Pracharath have started approaching potential defectors from the Move Forward Party, aiming to secure 60-70 MPs, and also reaching out to coalition MPs.
Some coalition MPs have been approached to support a new prime ministerial vote. Some declined, but many are waiting to see what happens before making any decision.
Palang Pracharath's moves to recruit defectors have raised the stakes. If Prawit succeeds, it could be a turning point on the road back to power. But if he fails, it could spell the political end for Palang Pracharath.
Thaksin had previously challenged “the man of the forest house” for a secret political manoeuvre to have the Constitutional Court review Srettha’s qualifications for appointing Phichit Chuenban as a Minister attached to the Prime Minister's Office.
Behind the scenes, Thaksin has told many political leaders that if Srettha survives August 14, he will remove Prawit and Palang Pracharath from the coalition.
The person most affected by this situation is Thammanat Prompao, Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, who has been gathering Palang Pracharath MPs to maintain the party’s coalition status.
It’s said that Palang Pracharath has 20 MPs directly loyal to Prawit and another 20 loyal to Thammanat. If the big coalition parties want to expel Palang Pracharath, how will they handle Thammanat's 20 MPs?
Most Palang Pracharath executives are loyal to Prawit, so if they refuse to expel Thammanat's MPs, those politicians will be unable to join a new party.
The most likely scenario is Thammanat trying to recruit more of Prawit's MPs.
If Srettha continues in his post, Thammanat's group might take over Palang Pracharath to keep its coalition status.
Thaksin's directive to remove Prawit has been clear to Thammanat for some time. August 14 will determine Srettha's fate and simultaneously decide the future of Prawit and Palang Pracharath.
