Era of the Three Kingdoms returns to Thai politics
With the date of the verdict in Srettha’s case drawing near, the big players in the Blue and Red camps look to the future
Newin Chidchob, the president of Buriram United Football Club and the headmaster of the Bhumjaithai Party, is once again in the spotlight both in front of and behind the Thai political scenes, even more so now that the so-called “Blue Camp” is dominating the Senate.
The recently-declared election results for the Senate President and Vice Presidents reinforce the notion of a Blue Senate, with Mongkol Surasajja, a Senator from Group 1, leading with 159 votes, Gen Kriangkrai Srirak, also from Group 1, the first Vice President with 150 votes, and Boonsong Noisophon, a Senator from Group 2, Law and Justice, as the second Vice President with 167 votes.
These results show that the Blue Camp has about 150-160 votes in the Senate. When combined with the 71 votes from the Bhumjaithai Party in the Lower House, the Blues hold some 220-230 votes in both houses.
And so the headmaster of Buriram has become the most influential power broker at this time.
Thai political scenarios have moved away from the era of the Three Ps (Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, Gen Prawit Wongsuwan and Gen Anupong “Pom” Paochinda) and are now entering the era of the Three Kingdoms: the Red Camp, the Orange Camp and the Blue Camp.
Thaksin Shinawatra, the spiritual leader of the Pheu Thai Party aka the Red Camp, still has a lot of work to do to restore faith and is expected to fully assume the role of government advisor after his formal release on August 22.
Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the spiritual leader of the Move Forward Party, is likely preparing for the possibility of his party's dissolution, which might cause initial chaos, but once stabilised, the Orange Camp will remain the most popular.
That leaves Newin Chidchob, the spiritual leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, who is a master strategist. The phenomenon of the “Blue” senators attests to his expertise in electoral politics.
Learning from his defeat in 2011, Newin concluded that it was essential to stop the colour division and erase his image as a rival to the Big Boss (Thaksin), choosing to push Anutin Charnvirakul, with his conciliatory personality and extensive connections, to lead the party.
As it stands now, Newin might hold more sway than the Red Camp when combining votes from both houses, but the head of Buriram still respects the Big Boss and is ready to continue the political alliance.
Above all, the Red and Blue parties have a special duty to manage the country during this transition period, and both share a common adversary in the Orange Party.
In this context, the rumour mill has been buzzing about the “Khao Yai Declaration” or the “Pak Chong Love Pact” when Thaksin visited Rancho Charnvee Resort in Khao Yai last weekend.
Anutin, as the host, warmly welcomed Thaksin and the Shinawatra family. Additionally, senior politicians, big businessmen, and leading Pheu Thai MPs from Nakhon Ratchasima enjoyed the lively gathering.
The camaraderie between Thaksin and Anutin at Khao Yai has political analysts speculating about August 14, 2024, the day of the verdict in Prime Minister Srettha's case.
If Srettha is ordered to step down, it's highly likely that Paetongtarn Shinawatra will not immediately assume the premiership. Chaikasem Nitisiri still has health issues, which would appear to count him out.
Therefore, Anutin is being talked about as a potential backup Prime Minister. However, if and when the time comes, the leading party in the current government will still be Pheu Thai because of the Big Boss's influence.
