Could Anutin Charnvirakul be Thailand’s next PM?

Thailand’s Constitutional Court has two major cases on its docket next month. The first is related to the dissolution of the Move Forward Party, with a verdict scheduled for August 7. The second case concerns the qualifications of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, with a verdict scheduled on August 14.

With these two crucial cases looming, current political activity is understandably intense both openly and behind the scenes, with considerable jockeying for positions among those vying to assume the role of PM should Srettha lose.

If the Move Forward Party is ordered to dissolve, its MPs will need to find a new political party within 60 days. Historically, both the Future Forward Party and Move Forward Party have seen their MPs absorbed by the Bhumjaithai Party. It is therefore likely that prominent figures will aim to increase their support in parliament by recruiting these MPs.

Should the Constitutional Court rule that Srettha is unqualified, he would immediately be removed from his position as prime minister. A new prime minister would then need to be selected from the candidates submitted by political parties to the Election Commission (EC).

Only five candidates are eligible for nomination: Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leader of the Pheu Thai Party; Chaikasem Nitisiri, a Pheu Thai Party candidate; Anutin Charnvirakul, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of the Interior, and leader of the Bhumjaithai Party; General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the Palang Pracharath Party; and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Energy and leader of the United Thai Nation Party.

Right now, Anutin seems to be the most politically active, putting in appearances at various VVIP gatherings, both secret and public. He recently hosted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the Shinawatra family, and leaders and MPs from the Pheu Thai Party at the Rancho Charnvee Resort in Khao Yai. He has also displayed his power by being photographed with influential business figures.

If Srettha is removed from office, it is unlikely that Paetongtarn would immediately assume the role of prime minister. The political landscape remains perilous, and Paetongtarn would want to avoid the risk of becoming a political pawn. Chaikasem's health issues might make him an unsuitable choice at this time.

Therefore, if Thaksin needs a backup plan, Anutin's name is likely to be considered due to their strong relationship. Despite the very public break up between Thaksin and Newin Chidchob, headmaster of the Bhumjaithai Party, after the infamous phrase “It’s over, sir”, Anutin has been trying to mediate the relationship between Thaksin and Newin. Though his efforts have not yielded any success, Anutin has earned considerable trust from Thaksin.

The Bhumjaithai leader has also been in the headlines for other reasons, not least on the controversial cannabis issue. Health Minister Somsak Thepsuthin tried to reclassify cannabis as a controlled substance, but Anutin took matters into his own hands, resolving the matter through private discussions, resulting in a compromise law. There is speculation about whether this outcome had Thaksin's approval.

Additionally, the support of the “Blue” Senate will be a crucial base for the “Blue Party” as Bhumjaithai is often called, in manoeuvring the political game. This compels Thaksin and his financial backers to strengthen their relationship with Newin through Anutin.

Anutin's connections within the military, especially with his classmates from the National Defence College Class 61, namely General Sanitchanok Sangkhachan, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Defence; General Charoenchai Hinthao, Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Army; and Vice Admiral Suwin Jangyodsuk, Deputy Commander of the Royal Thai Navy, also bolster his political position. And, of course, Anutin has the trust of conservative factions.

Given his political and military connections, Anutin stands a good chance of becoming prime minister if Srettha is removed and the Pheu Thai candidates are not ready. Thaksin might prefer Anutin as an alternative candidate.

As General Prawit is still in contention for the prime ministerial position and actively recruiting Pheu Thai members into his party, signalling a serious challenge, it makes sense for Thaksin to strengthen his relationship with Anutin as a contingency plan.

Regardless of the outcome, Anutin is set to be a prominent figure throughout August.