Amid upcoming court verdicts, political waters are astir again
The Constitutional Court is scheduled to deliver on August 7 the much-awaited verdict in the dissolution case against the opposition Move Forward Party, which has been accused of undermining the constitutional monarchy system of government.
It is expected that the same court will also deliver its verdict a week or two later on whether Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin should be disqualified over the controversial appointment of Phichit Chuenban as a minister attached to the Prime Minister's Office.
These two cases are reigniting political tensions, with some individuals secretly eyeing the prime minister's seat, though the potential candidate remains passive. However, loyal followers are mapping out plans, giving "Uncle Prawit" renewed hope.
If the Move Forward Party is dissolved, only 30-40 out of its 148 MPs are expected to join other parties, which means no party will have a clear majority to be able to form a government on its own.
The Pheu Thai Party, with its 142 seats, remains stable. Thus, any plans to buy out Move Forward MPs will likely be abandoned, especially since the ruling coalition parties are not supporting "Uncle”, making any shifts in the political landscape almost impossible.
But in the next 1-2 months, political bargaining from coalition parties will become more evident.
If Srettha is disqualified by the Constitutional Court, leading to his removal from office, a new round of political negotiations and realignments will begin immediately.
During the run-up to the verdict, Pheu Thai as the leading coalition party, must play it safe and step back to listen to coalition partners' demands. Similarly, coalition parties might seize this moment to push their agenda.
The Bhumjaithai Party, as the second-largest party, in particular, will play a major role. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Anutin Charnvirakul, who is also the head of Bhumjaithai, has already struck a discordant by expressing concerns over the government’s move to reclassify cannabis as a narcotic.
"I have explained to the prime minister and Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai that Bhumjaithai has concerns. There is still much information and studies to consider before making a decision to reclassify cannabis," said Anutin.
Anutin emphasised that as the Minister of Interior, he has to vote in the Narcotics Control Board meeting and reserves the right to vote against the reclassification.
Anutin's strategic moves are calculated. His recent challenge to Pheu Thai through Srettha and Phumtham, amid escalating political tensions and rumours of " Uncle " planning a power shift, raises Bhumjaithai's profile.
From now on, attention must be paid to coalition partners like the Palang Pracharath Party and the United Thai Nation Party, which may set conditions to negotiate with Pheu Thai.
The political landscape has entered a phase of strategic manoeuvring, with real and fake news circulating widely. It remains to be seen how much and how long Pheu Thai and its leader will make concessions to coalition partners.
