Blue faction set to dominate senate once EC issues certification

A review of the senators elected in the final round of the voting at the end of June reveals that Buriram Province leads the way with the most senators-elect at 14, followed by Bangkok, Ayutthaya, Surin, Songkhla, Satun, and Ang Thong each have 6 senator-elects with numbers ranging from 14 to 6.

The numbers appear disproportionate when compared to the number of MPs, which reflects the representation of the population in each province, Buriram has 10 MPs but 14 senators-elect, Bangkok has 33 MPs but only 9 senators-elect. Ayutthaya has 5 MPs but 7 senators-elect, and Ang Thong has 2 MPs but 6 senators-elect.

Surprisingly, there are 13 provinces without any senator-elect representation, despite having many MPs, especially in the Northeast. These provinces include Udon Thani, Roi Et, Sakon Nakhon, Kalasin, Phetchabun, Maha Sarakham, Narathiwat, Lop Buri, Kamphaeng Phet, Tak, Sa Kaeo, Uttaradit, and Mae Hong Son.

The unusual aspects of this senatorial selection, which is currently awaiting certification from the Election Commission (EC), have not escaped scrutiny from the media and social media.

There has been significant criticism regarding the professional qualifications of some senators-elect, suggesting that their stated careers and experience do not match their profiles.

For instance, among the 10 senators elected in the media category, one listed his profession as tailor, and another as nurse.

In the arts, culture, music, performance, and entertainment group, a senator-elect from Buriram claimed to have worked as a professional “for hire” and listed experience as a senior football player from 1984 to 2004. It was later revealed that he was closely associated with the Chidchob family of Bhumjaithai party fame.

Even in the science and technology category, there is a senator-elect who listed his profession as merchant.
An examination of the composition of the 200 senators-elect across 20 categories, reveals that the top candidates in each received about 60-70 votes.

The senator-elect with the highest number of votes, 79, is from the independent professions group. Dr Ketkamon Pliansamai from Phetchaburi, a physician, secured the top spot. She is an expert in cosmetic medicine, an advisor to the parliamentary committee on law, justice, and human rights, and the managing director of Ketkamon Clinic, Ketkamon Dental Clinic, and Inter Derma Laboratory.

General Kriangkrai Srirak, a former assistant army chief and former commander of the 4th Army Region, scored 74 votes in the first category, which includes public administration and security.

Apinan Phuakphong, a former governor of Nakhon Si Thammarat, is a senator-elect in the first category, ranking 10th with the lowest score of 16 votes among the 200 senator-elects.

Notable observations can be made regarding the unusually high number of blue-aligned senators-elect, exceeding 100 votes or more than 50% of the Senate.

Candidates from powerful families with the influence of so-called “blue” people, during the final two rounds of national selection, were observed using an internal communication strategy within the Blue Faction rather than engaging with non-Blue Faction candidates to secure votes.

When approached by non-group candidates seeking votes or attempting to make deals, Blue Faction candidates would often remain silent, avoiding conversations with those outside their group.

Some senators-elect even mentioned that, before the national selection, Blue Faction candidates gathered at a luxury hotel in central Bangkok. This led to a surprisingly large number of Blue Faction senators entering the Senate.

Some Orange Faction senators-elect believe that the EC is unlikely to disqualify a significant number of Blue Faction senators before certifying the results. However, they remain hopeful that if the EC rigorously

investigates the qualifications of or disqualifies Blue Faction senators with questionable qualifications, typically ranked 1st to 5th in each category, it could allow reserve candidates, totalling 100, to move up as senators.
Candidates ranked 6th to 10th in each category are mostly not backed by the influence of powerful blue-aligned families.

This gives Orange Faction senators-elect hope of turning the tables in the senate if reserve candidates can replace Blue Faction senators.

Blue Faction senators with questionable qualifications are disqualified, removing 2-3 senators per group and replacing them with reserve senators, the power of Blue Faction senators in the senate could diminish by as many as 40-60 seats.

However, this scenario is largely wishful thinking among Orange Faction senators-elects, who dream that the new senate will have more independent senators. In reality, it is highly unlikely that the EC will disqualify as many blue-aligned senators as hoped.