A Blue-leaning Senate could stymie Move Forward’s agenda
If no political accidents derail their entry into the Senate, it is evident that the upper House will soon transition from what was known as the era of "camouflage senators" to the era of "big house senators" in full force.
As is widely recognised, this round's 200 Senate seats are largely dominated by the "Blue Faction" – a group of senators believed to be loyal to the Bhumjaithai Party – indicating a significant shift in the political balance that warrants close observation in the coming period. Bhumjaithai is a partner in the Pheu Thai-led ruling coalition.
With the "Blue Faction" holding near-total control in the Senate, they have a substantial bargaining chip in the legislative branch. This is not just about controlling key votes on bills, where the Senate's final approval is crucial, or constitutional amendments, which require a joint meeting of both houses, including approval from at least 67 senators.
This also extends to the crucial "balance of power" in approving appointments to key independent bodies, especially during this period of transition within these organisations.
Reviewing each body from 2024 to 2027, during the current government, we find:
The Constitutional Court will see the terms of two of its nine judges end in November 2024, including that of court president Nakharin Mektrairat.
In 2027, five of the nine judges will complete their terms.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) will see three members leave at the end of their terms in December 2024.
Additionally, there will be two new NACC members taking office in 2024, and one position is currently under the Senate's nomination process as the previous Senate did not approve the candidate.
This means the approval of the remaining NACC member will be the responsibility of the incoming Senate.
In 2027, one more NACC member's term will end.
The terms of six State Audit Commission members will end in September 2024.
The terms of five of the seven Election Commission members will end in 2025, including EC president Itthiporn Boonprakong.
The Ombudsman’s Office will see president Somsak Suwansujarit finish his term.
Given this situation, it is critical to monitor the "balance of power" in the Senate during the same period when independent bodies are undergoing significant changes.
The current Constitution has designed the terms for "members" or "judges" in these independent bodies to overlap, resulting in a situation where these independent bodies are in a state of flux between the "old guard" – many with direct ties to figures like General Prayuth Chan-o-cha and General Prawit Wongsuwan – some of whom are still serving, and the new appointees selected for the incoming Senate.
This is similar to the broader political balance, which is also entering a phase of transition under the negotiation power held by different factions.
Observing the current signals from the Senate, and checking the various factions' stance, it is clear that we are not only witnessing a conservative advance to counter the Orange party – Move Forward Party – but also seeing signs of a power shift within the "conservative bloc" itself.
