Expert: Srettha and MFP cases threaten Thailand’s economic revival

Thailand’s economic revival is being threatened by major political issues including court cases against the prime minister and opposition party, an expert from the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) said on Monday.

TDRI researcher Nonarit Bisonyabut warned that Thailand’s new “economic dawn” driven by global recovery and domestic stimulus was being overshadowed by heavy clouds.

Interest rates in Europe and the US had begun falling, signalling a global revival cycle, Nonarit said. But political turmoil in Thailand was blocking the light, he added.

“Dawn is spreading for the Thai economy, with the sky still dark but the sun about to rise,” Nonarit said.

“The global economy is poised to escape the cycle of high interest rates without severe recession while the domestic economy is about to be boosted by government spending from the 2024 budget bill.

“But in the short term, the concern is whether political issues will delay the sunrise.”

He cited the cases in the Constitutional Court against Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and the Move Forward Party as political issues that could put the brake on Thailand’s economic revival.

A group of senators have asked the Constitutional Court to remove Srettha from office for allegedly breaching the charter by appointing Pichit Chuenban as a minister despite his prison record.

Nonarit said changing the prime minister would also result in a change of Cabinet, which would delay economic stimulus measures.

In Move Forward’s case, the Election Commission has asked the Constitutional Court to dissolve the party for allegedly trying to undermine constitutional monarchy with its push to amend the lese majeste law.

Nonarit said dissolution of the popular opposition party, which won most seats at last year’s election, could trigger street protests that would not bode well for the economy.

“These factors could mean Thailand remains in the dark for longer,” he said.