Two decades of Southern Insurgency: 500 billion baht spent, nearly 10,000 attacks

The ongoing insurgency in Thailand’s southern border provinces has persisted for over two decades. Despite the government's substantial budget allocations to address the issue, the situation remains unresolved.

Violence and Use of Explosives

Bomb attacks have been the primary tactic of insurgents since 2004. Most of the explosives used are improvised explosive devices (IEDs) made from locally available materials.

Since January 4, 2004, a total of 5,484 bombs have been detonated in 4,369 incidents. The highest number of bombings occurred in 2007, with 468 incidents recorded.

Narathiwat has consistently experienced the highest number of bomb attacks, except in 2015, when Yala saw more incidents. One possible reason for this is that Narathiwat is the largest of the three southernmost provinces.

In 2024, gas cylinder bombs were used in 58 incidents, surpassing the use of pipe bombs. The increased use of gas cylinder bombs highlights the severity of the situation, as they are larger and have greater destructive power.

On January 3, 2025, a bomb exploded at a checkpoint in Sai Buri District, Pattani Province, injuring six police officers and a three-year-old child caught in the blast. The perpetrators hid an IED inside a battery box placed on an illuminated "Stop for Inspection" sign.

This incident is linked to the 21st anniversary of the January 4, 2004, raid on a military base in Cho Airong District, Narathiwat Province, an event regarded as the "beginning" of the current wave of southern insurgency.

Budget Allocation for Conflict Resolution

Over the past 22 fiscal years (2004–2025), a total of 510.365 billion baht has been spent on addressing the southern unrest. The highest budget allocation was in 2016, reaching 30.5128 billion baht under the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) government.

The NCPO restructured the budget under a new category called the "Integrated Southern Border Provinces Conflict Resolution Plan" in the 2017 fiscal year. However, investigations revealed that southern conflict-related funds were also embedded in "other budget plans."

A portion of the budget has been allocated as "compensation funds" for victims of the insurgency. As of January 3, 2025, a total of 4.4688 billion baht has been disbursed in compensation.

Impact of the Conflict

The ongoing unrest in Thailand’s southern border provinces has resulted in:

• 5,936 fatalities (3,644 civilians and 2,292 state officials)
• 13,129 injuries (6,442 civilians and 6,687 state officials)
• 903 cases of permanent disability (465 civilians and 438 state officials)

Compensation for loss of life and bodily harm accounts for the largest share of financial aid, totalling 3.4119 billion baht, while 1.0568 billion baht has been allocated for property damage compensation.

Since the start of the conflict, there have been 9,948 violent incidents, affecting a total of 19,968 individuals.

The southern insurgency remains a complex and persistent challenge. Despite significant government spending, violence continues. Addressing the issue requires a deep understanding of the region’s context, inclusive participation from all stakeholders, and sustainable solutions to achieve lasting peace.