Thailand’s healthcare system on verge of collapse, health expert warns
A leading public health expert has warned that Thailand's healthcare system is on the verge of collapse due to the "tsunami of ageing" and the lack of effective strategies to address non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
Citing the latest report, Dr Supakit Sirilak, director of the Health Systems Research Institute (HSRI), made this alarming assessment in an exclusive interview with Thansettakij.
He urged the prime minister to take a leading role in accelerating the resolution of these pressing issues before the country faces a severe economic crisis in 2034.
Supakit highlighted two major challenges facing Thailand's healthcare system, warning that if they remain unaddressed by 2034, the country could face a financial catastrophe.
The first challenge is the rapid ageing of the population. Unlike many other countries that have undergone gradual demographic shifts,
Thailand's ageing population is characterised by a "population tsunami", driven by a surge in births between 1963 and 1983. This generation is now entering old age, creating a significant strain on the healthcare system.
Compounding the problem is a declining birth rate, which will have adverse implications for the labour force in the near future. Thailand's current fertility rate (TFR) stands at a mere 1.1, and is projected to decrease further. The country's annual birth rate has plummeted from 1.5 million five years ago to approximately 400,000 today.
By 2040, it is estimated that one-third of Thailand's elderly population will be dependent, meaning that the working population will need to support a significantly larger number of retirees.
To mitigate the challenges posed by a declining population, Supakit emphasised the importance of improving the "quality of children".
Historically, Thailand had a relatively high birth rate, but with the current decline, it is essential to ensure that the remaining children are equipped with the necessary skills and resources to contribute to society.
The second major challenge facing Thailand's healthcare system is the management of NCDs. Despite implementing an NCDs strategy for the past decade, the country has struggled to address the rising prevalence of conditions such as heart disease, stroke, and kidney disease.
Data from recent health surveys reveal that the prevalence of diabetes continues to increase, and efforts to promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing sugar consumption, have yielded limited results. Additionally, the rate of hypertension is on the rise, with one in four adults now living with this condition.
The overall healthcare burden on Thailand is substantial, with both public and private expenditures on health services accounting for approximately 5% of the country's GDP, or around 800-900 billion baht. A significant portion of this spending is directed towards the treatment of NCDs, estimated to reach 2 trillion baht.
Supakit warned that if the current trajectory continues, the number of Thai people requiring dialysis could increase ten fold within the next decade, reaching between 800,000 and 1.8 million. This would place an enormous strain on the healthcare system and result in substantial financial costs.
To overcome these challenges, Supakit called for a collaborative effort involving all sectors of society, from policymakers to healthcare providers and the general public. He stressed the need for strong government policies and leadership to address these pressing issues and prevent a financial crisis in the years to come.
