The western front has grown increasingly tense, coinciding with a scheduled meeting in Bangkok between Myanmar’s junta leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Despite the country’s turmoil from the recent earthquake, many Myanmar citizens still participated in Thingyan (Burmese New Year) celebrations, engaging in traditional merit-making and sporadic water fights.
The Myanmar military government had earlier announced a 20-day ceasefire, while the National Unity Government (NUG) declared a two-week truce. Various ethnic armed organisations also issued similar ceasefire statements.
However, on the ground, the main warring factions—Myanmar’s military and opposition forces—continued to violate the ceasefire declarations.
The Myanmar Air Force carried out daily bombings in the Sagaing Region, Rakhine and Kachin States. Meanwhile, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Chin National Defence Force (CDF) sustained their assaults on military outposts.
Foreign rescue teams have concluded their search operations following the earthquake and have returned to their home countries, leaving only humanitarian aid groups remaining on the ground
In response, Anwar, as ASEAN Chair, has arranged a meeting with Min Aung Hlaing to discuss humanitarian assistance for earthquake victims.
The Thai government has not been officially informed of any scheduled visit by Min Aung Hlaing to Thailand. The meeting is considered a private engagement between Anwar, Thaksin and Min Aung Hlaing.
During the Songkran holiday, Thaksin publicly confirmed for the first time that he had spoken with Min Aung Hlaing during the BIMSTEC Summit, expressing a desire to see peace restored in Myanmar.
“I’ve conveyed to all major powers that Thailand wants to see Myanmar resolve its internal conflicts. Without dialogue, there can be no path toward negotiation,” Thaksin stated.
He affirmed Thailand’s readiness to serve as a venue for peace talks to help end the crisis in Myanmar.
However, on April 16, 2025, NUG, along with allied ethnic armed groups—including the Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), Chin National Front (CNF), and the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF)—jointly issued an urgent statement regarding the rumoured meeting between Min Aung Hlaing and the Malaysian Prime Minister.
“We are deeply concerned that ASEAN leaders are engaging with the Myanmar military leader under the pretext of humanitarian assistance. This individual is responsible for the daily killing of innocent civilians,” the statement read.
The NUG further called on ASEAN to halt all humanitarian aid efforts channelled exclusively through the Myanmar military regime.
According to the NUG, the junta now controls only 22% of Myanmar’s territory. Nevertheless, Min Aung Hlaing remains adamant that a general election will be held by the end of 2025.
It is noteworthy that the news of Min Aung Hlaing’s possible visit to Thailand coincides with the latest outbreak of fighting in Kayin State.
Why did the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of KNU, along with PDF, launch a military operation at dawn on April 15?
According to reports from the Rachamanu Special Task Force under the Naresuan Forces, KNLA and PDF troops attacked Myanmar military forces stationed at Tactical Command Base No. 12 in Kawkareik Township, Kayin State, Myanmar—approximately 42 kilometres from the Thai border opposite Ban Rim Moei, Tha Sai Luat Subdistrict, Mae Sot District.
That same afternoon, the Myanmar Air Force deployed YAK-130 fighter jets to bomb the area around Kan Ni Monastery in Kan Ni Village, Kawkareik Township, resulting in casualties and injuries among monks and civilians.
Significantly, Kawkareik Township lies on the strategic Asian Highway Route 1 (AH-1), which connects Myawaddy to central Myanmar. This highway is a vital trade route between Thailand and Myanmar.
The KNU has deployed KNLA and PDF forces to block this road for over a year, fearing that the Myanmar military might exploit the route to launch an offensive and reclaim control of Myawaddy.
Late last year, the private sector in Mae Sot District, Tak Province, called on the government of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to initiate dialogue with the Myanmar junta to reopen the AH-1 route for regular use.
Opposition forces have widely circulated claims that the KNU deployed a combined force of 3,000 KNLA and PDF fighters with the objective of seizing Tactical Command Base No. 12 to sever Myanmar’s access to Myawaddy.
Although the pro-junta Border Guard Force (BGF) under “ Saw Chit Thu” currently holds Myawaddy, KNU leadership views its presence as preferable to renewed occupation by Myanmar military forces.
The KNU's military operation during the Thingyan festival serves as a clear warning to the Thai government regarding how it should balance its relations between Myanmar’s military regime in Naypyidaw and the National Unity Government (NUG).
The aspiration of Thaksin, who wishes for Thailand to serve as a neutral platform for peacebuilding in Myanmar, must also be accompanied by a clear stance on democracy and human rights.