After four years of turmoil under Prayut, what’s next for Thailand?

Amorn Wanichwiwatana

Special to The Nation

An indecisive victory at the 2019 election led to another coalition Cabinet as a new calculation method delivered some bizarre results. Some parties won no constituency MPs but as many as 10 party-list MPs. And the ridiculous phenomena did not end there. Despite winning the most votes, Pheu Thai could not form a coalition government. Strangely, its chief Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphant, despite being Pheu Thai’s No 1 party list nomination, fell foul of the new calculation formula issued by the Election Commission and lost her seat in Parliament.

A year later, the opposition’s push to amend the Constitution was joined by coalition figures from the Bhumjaithai and Democrat parties. The war of words both inside and outside of Parliament resulted in a new charter draft being written by a few hand-picked academics. However, they failed to deliver on their mission and instead proposed just a few electoral changes.

The Democrats and Pheu Thai then appeared to keep pushing for constitutional change, claiming they were following up on pledges made to their voters. Undoubtedly, the current Constitution brought a sea change in Thai politics. In 2019, several parties received unexpected benefits from the new calculation formula, gaining MPs who turned themselves from ordinary citizens into important figures.

The newly established Future Forward (now Move Forward) became a medium-sized party under the new charter.

Covid-19, however, arrived to disrupt the beginning of Prayut Chan-o-cha's government, which followed WHO guidance and urged national unity in the fight to overcome the pandemic. Covid outbreaks were caused by carelessness and negligence of politicians and certain rich and famous individuals. Nevertheless, luck appeared to be on our side, even though government figures were tarnished by rampant rumours of rigged vaccine purchases and hoarding of face masks. It remains unclear why we needed to buy very expensive masks despite being a major exporter of this product. The public also complained about the cost of vaccination, with jabs for public health personnel understandably a priority. But wealthy VIPs still jumped the queue to get shots before medics and the elderly at a time when vulnerable people were dying. Are the lives of the rich worth more than others? Many in Thai society would answer with a resounding yes even now.

Prayut's government survived the Covid challenges, earning some praise both domestically and internationally. But the success would not have been possible without the sacrifice of ordinary Thais shouldering the burdens and hardship during lockdowns and other severe restrictions. Meanwhile, the government launched several economic rescue schemes to boost GDP and support household finances. Schemes like the half-half shopping subsidy, let's travel together, taxi and worker furlough payments were launched to help out those in need and maintain national creditability.

Another litmus test for Prayut's administration was the Bangkok gubernatorial election earlier this year, where independent Chadchart Sittipunt won a landslide amid furious competition for the coveted seat from both government and opposition parties. Chadchart outmanoeuvred Prayut and his allies with a sophisticated social media campaign that won the heart of voters and showed the government still lags behind on digital influence.

The fight against Prayut's government continued, with censure debates launched by opposition factions as frequently as parliamentary rules allowed. Still, controversy over Prayut's term limit was cleared when the Constitutional Court ruled in October he could stay on as PM though only serve for half a term if selected as prime minister after the next election. With that election due in less than six months, many politicians are jockeying for position to ensure re-election, funding and a new platform to articulate their agenda.

Politicians come and go, and it is not easy to predict right now who will be our next prime minister. Prayut might be in the race but newcomers are also coming forward to vie for the premiership. For now, only former finance minister and Democrat Korn Chatikavanij has launched a bid. Other possible candidates are Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, and Anutin Charnvirakul. Meanwhile the opposition is likely to put forward Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Pita Limjaroenrat as PM nominees. The winner will struggle steer the country safely through awaiting crises. But one thing is for sure in Thailand: money politics and other political sleaze will remain on the show for many years to come. The only way to get past this hurdle is for people to shout loud and clear, by any means necessary, to eradicate unscrupulous people from politics. We have to do it now, every day, and everywhere.

Amorn Wanichwiwatana, DPhil (Oxon), is a former member of the Constitution Drafting Commission and a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.