Births in Japan expected to fall below 800,000 in 2021
Births in Japan are expected to fall below 800,000, according to estimates released by several private research institutes, partly due to delays in having children as a result of uncertainty over the future amid the novel coronavirus crisis.
Some in the government have pointed out the possibility of the number falling below 800,000, and there is growing concern that the coronavirus disaster will accelerate the decline in the birthrate.
If the estimates are correct, the number of births will fall below 800,000 in just two years, after falling below 900,000 to about 865,000 in 2019. The number of births in Japan peaked during the first baby boom in 1947-1949, making the new estimates less than one-third of the about 2.7 million births recorded in 1949.
According to the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry, the number of pregnancy notifications received by local governments nationwide from women between January and October decreased by 5.1% from the same period last year.
The Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc. estimated that the number of births in 2021 will drop to 776,000 if the decline in pregnancy notifications continues. The Japan Research Institute Ltd., which conducted a similar estimate, put the figure at 792,000.
If the birthrate continues to decline at a faster pace than expected and the impact is prolonged, it could shake the structure of the social security system, in which the working-age population mainly supports the elderly.
Virus risks at forefront
“I don’t recommend proceeding with treatment at this time,” a doctor told a 35-year-old female company employee living in Kanagawa Prefecture, influencing her decision to suspend fertility treatments, citing a risk of contracting the novel coronavirus.
Although she plans to resume treatment next year, the woman said: “I had sorted out my feelings and made up my mind to ‘take the first step,’ but I lost my determination. It’s hard to turn my mind to treatment again.”
The virus outbreak is causing people to hold off on childbearing due to uncertainty about the future, and is also changing demographic trends, such as the number of births between 2020 and 2021.
According to the health ministry, the preliminary number of births for the period from January to October was 733,907, down about 17,000 from the same period last year. The annual number of births is expected to fall below last year’s figure of 865,239, the lowest on record.
Impact on employment, security
The number of marriages, which are strongly linked to childbirth rates in Japan, was 424,343 in the preliminary figures for January to October, down about 65,000 from the same period last year.
In addition, the number of reported pregnancies in January to October decreased by 5.1% from the same period last year. If the figures are as estimated by the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute and the Japan Research Institute, it will become a reality 12 years earlier than the estimate by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research that the number will fall below 800,000 in 2033.
Takumi Fujinami, senior chief researcher at the Japan Research Institute, has concluded that the decline in the number of births is largely due to the economic insecurity of the younger generation, rather than concerns about infectious diseases. Many young people work in the restaurant and tourism industries, which have been hit hard by the coronavirus disaster.
Takuya Hoshino, deputy chief economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, said: “There are concerns about the impact of telecommuting, online classes and other activities that will reduce personal interactions and decrease marriages. Even if the virus is contained, we don’t know if the number of births will return to normal.”
Hoshino also predicts that the increasingly low birthrate will accelerate the pace of Japan’s population decline and that the population will fall below 100 million by 2049, four years earlier than the estimate of 2053 assumed by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
The national institute publishes population projections every five years, based on the results of the national census and other data. If the current trend continues for a prolonged period, a review of future projections will be inevitable.
If the number of working-age people in the future decreases due to the declining birthrate, it will affect the design of social security systems such as pensions, medical care and nursing care. Currently, one elderly person at the age of 65 or older is supported by two working-age people between the ages of 15 and 64.
